The Polish Climate in the European Context: An Historical Overview
Reconstruction of the climate variability of the past 500 years is a topic of great scientific interest not only in global terms, but also at regional and local levels. This period is interesting on account of the increasing influence of anthropogenic for
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The Polish Climate in the European Context An Historical Overview
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The Polish Climate in the European Context: An Historical Overview
Rajmund Przybylak Jacek Majorowicz Rudolf Brázdil Marek Kejna ●
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Editors
The Polish Climate in the European Context An Historical Overview
Editors Rajmund Przybylak Department of Climatology Nicolaus Copernicus University ul. Gagarina 9, 87–100 Toruń Poland [email protected]
Jacek Majorowicz University of North Dakota Northern Plains Climate Research Centre Grant Forks, ND USA [email protected]
Rudolf Brázdil Institute of Geography Masaryk University Kotlářská 2, 611 37 Brno Czech Republic [email protected]
Marek Kejna Department of Climatology Nicolaus Copernicus University ul. Gagarina 9, 87–100 Toruń Poland [email protected]
ISBN 978-90-481-3166-2 e-ISBN 978-90-481-3167-9 DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3167-9 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009932719 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
How unusual was the climate of the twentieth century? This question has dominated research on climate variability in recent decades as scientists have tried to assess the role of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases on the global environment. From our understanding of the physics of the atmosphere, we expect that the net effect will be warming, and this is confirmed by model simulations of the climate system. But another line of evidence is to examine early instrumental records, historical documents and proxy records of climate from natural archives, to extend the overall record of climate further back in time. In this way, recent observations can be placed in a long-term perspective, providing a third approach to evaluating the nature and significance of recent climate changes. For many regions of the world, instrumental records were obtained at the same time that anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere were increasing, so “natural” and human-induced factors affecting the climate system became progressively more intertwined. Thus, distinguishing anthropogenic from natural climate variability is often problematical in recent decades. Long-term records, which extend back before the industrial revolution, provide a picture of climate variability at a time when greenhouse gases were much closer to their long-term background level (~280 ppmv, versus 385 ppmv today). Europe has a wealth of such records. Not only are there many long-term instrumental records, but also meticulously kept written records from m
