The Potential United Kingdom Energy Gap and Creep Life Prediction Methodologies
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I.
INTRODUCTION
A significant number of power generation plants in the United Kingdom are approaching the end of their design lives, and new policies relating to environmental protection and safety at work have meant that others—especially coal and oil fired plants—are also earmarked for closure. Major advances in analytical techniques for life assessment, which suggest the initial safety factors of these plants were unduly high, have made it more profitable to invest in the modernization of existing plants rather than the building of new ones. However, such modernization only makes economic sense if existing plants have sufficient residual life, and so reducing the uncertainty in evaluating remaining plant life is currently of primary importance to the power generating industry within the UK. This article starts off by comparing the current size and age of power generation plants within the UK with the current demand for energy to highlight the growing potential for an energy gap to emerge within the next decade. The role of coal, nuclear power, new materials, and technologies, and more importantly life assessment techniques in preventing such an energy gap emerging are then reviewed. This is followed by a detailed review, with illustrations and a critique of the many life assessment techniques currently in use. While the list is not exhaustive, it is representative of the main approaches currently relied upon within the power generating industry. The article finishes by outlining some broad conclusions and recommendations for future research.
MARK EVANS, Senior Lecturer, is with the College of Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP, U.K. Contact e-mail: [email protected] Manuscript submitted February 23, 2012. Article published online October 12, 2012 METALLURGICAL AND MATERIALS TRANSACTIONS A
II.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN THE UK
Plant generating capacity has been gradually increasing in the UK from just under 75,000 MW in 2006 to just over 83,000 MW in 2010.[1] Currently, the UK has quite a broad mix of power plant types, with just under 80 pct of the generating capacity coming from conventional steam powered and combined cycle gas turbine stations (in roughly equal shares), an additional 13 pct from nuclear power stations, and the remainder coming from gas turbines, oil engines, and renewable sources. Currently, there are approximately 32 large power stations (each generating more the 1000 MW of energy) meeting the majority of energy demands within the UK.[1] There are six nuclear power plants each with a generating capacity in excess of 1000 MW of energy. There are 11 coal fired power stations with capacities in excess of 1000 MW, with a further 3 that are a combination of coal with gas or oil or biomass with this amount of capacity. The UK also has over 25 combined cycle gas turbine stations with capacities ranging from just 50 MW to over 1600 MW. The UK also has three oil fired power stations. Figure 1 shows the changes that have taken place in electricity generation within the UK during the last t
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