The Use of Formal and Informal Expert Judgments when Interpreting Data for Performance Assessments
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THE USE OF FORMAL AND INFORMAL EXPERT JUDGMENTS WHEN INTERPRETING DATA FOR PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENTS' 1
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ROB P. RECHARD , KATHLEEN M. TRAUTH1, JONATHAN S. RATH , ROBERT V. GUZOWSKI3, 4 STEPHEN C. HORA , and MARTIN S. TIERNEY1 1 2 Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 3 Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM. 4 University of Hawaii at Hilo, Hilo, HI
ABSTRACT This paper discusses the general process by which data and information are compiled and used for defining modeling parameters. These modeling parameters are input for the mathematical models that are used in performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), near Carlsbad, NM, which is designed to safely manage, store, and dispose of transuranic radioactive wastes. The physical and temporal scales, and the difficulty of obtaining measurements in geologic media make interpretation of measured data, including the difference between laboratory experiment scale and repository scale, important tasks. In most instances, standard scientific practices can ensure consistency of data use. To illustrate this point, an example is provided of the interpretation of field measurements of intrinsic permeability for use in computational models using the bootstrap technique. In some cases, sufficient information can never be collected, interpretation of the information is controversial, or information from diverse disciplines must be used. A procedure that formalizes the standard scientific practices under these conditions has been developed. An example is provided of how this procedure has been applied in eliciting expert judgments on markers to deter inadvertant human intrusion into the WIPP.
INTRODUCTION Background The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was authorized by Congress in 1979 to build the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, NM to safely manage, store, and eventually dispose of transuranic waste generated by DOE weapons programs. As part of the program, the WIPP Project must demonstrate compliance with environmental standards. The performance assessment (PA) process, which helps evaluate whether the WIPP complies with long-term environmental standards (e.g., 40 CFR 191 Subpart B) is a large modeling effort requiring the use of many distinct mathematical models linked together to predict the consequences of various scenarios (combinations of events and processes) that may occur at the WIPP over 10,000 yr [1]. The predicted consequences are combined with the corresponding probabilities of postulated scenarios and compared with release limits expressed in probabilistic terms [2,3]. The size of the modeling effort by Sandia National Laboratories, which acts as scientific advisor for the WIPP Project, necessitates the use of over 300 modeling parameters and stratigraphic information at about 500 wells [3]. This paper discusses the general process by which data are compiled and used for determining modeling parameters. The physical scale of the WIPP repository, the tim
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