To appease or to repress: how dictators use economic dynamics to increase their regime longevity
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To appease or to repress: how dictators use economic dynamics to increase their regime longevity Merel Harrijvan 1
& Maartje
Weerdesteijn 1
# The Author(s) 2020
Abstract International crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, are more likely to occur in non-democratic regimes. Consequently, the decision-making process of dictators has increasingly garnered criminological interest [78]. The decisions dictators make and the strategies they use impact the longevity of their regime. Scholars predominantly focus on the extent to which a dictator is able to generate support from both the elite and the masses in explaining regime survival ([22]; [3]; [54]). A dictator can use economic dynamics to increase his support among the elite through corrupt practices [3], he can determine the extent to which he is supported by the masses by offering public goods and services to them [22] and he can withhold benefits to repress threats stemming from these groups [17]. However, the intentional use of these strategies to increase regime survival remains under-researched [77]. The present research aims to fill this gap through an analysis of Paul Biya’s 37-year reign in Cameroon. It is argued that the economic structure of a country influences the strategy—repression or appeasement—that is chosen to deal with the threat stemming from the masses or the elite and that ultimately, these considerations are likely to influence the economic development of a country.
Introduction There are great differences in the longevity of dictatorial regimes. While some dictators rule for decades, others fall within a short amount of time [29]. Since it is more likely that international crimes such as genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes occur in non-democratic regimes [78], it is not surprising that there is a significant amount of literature that focuses on dictatorial regime survival. This body of work
* Merel Harrijvan [email protected] Maartje Weerdesteijn [email protected]
1
Center for International Criminal Justice, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Harrijvan M., Weerdesteijn M.
predominantly concentrates on the role and support of the ruling elite and of the masses [3, 22, 54]. The overarching concept that seems to influence these different strategies is the economic situation of a state. There is a long-standing practice of analyzing the relationship between economic growth and regime stability [17]. This relationship is rooted in the modernization theory of Lipset [44]. He argued that the more economically developed a nation is, the greater the chance a regime will develop into a democracy. While influential, the relationship between economic development and regime stability is far more complex than initially theorized by Lipset [44].1 Dictatorships can sustain despite poor economies [6] and there are cases in which dictatorships have stabilized while undergoing economic development.2 The connection between dictatorship survival and states’ economic situation is therefore
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