Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Towards environmentally sound intensification pathways for dairy development in the Tanga region of Tanzania An Notenbaert 1,2 & Jeroen C.J. Groot 2 & Mario Herrero 3 & Celine Birnholz 4 & Birthe K. Paul 1 & Catherine Pfeifer 5 & Simon Fraval 6 & Mats Lannerstad 7 & Jamie N. McFadzean 8 & Jennifer A.J. Dungait 8,9 & Joanne Morris 10 & Ylva Ran 10 & Jennie Barron 11 & Pablo Tittonell 12,13,14 Received: 24 March 2020 / Accepted: 30 October 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract The gap between milk demand and domestic supply in Tanzania is large and projected to widen. Meeting such demand through local production of affordable milk presents an opportunity to improve the welfare of producers and market agents through the income and employment generated along the value chain (VC). Efforts to maximize milk yields, production and profitability need to be balanced with long-term sustainability. We combined environmental and economic ex-ante impact assessments of four intervention scenarios for two production systems in the Tanzanian dairy VC using the CLEANED model and an economic feasibility analysis. Intervention scenarios propose increases in milk production through (i) animal genetic improvement, (ii) improved feed, (iii) improved animal health and (iv) a package combining all interventions. Results show that economically feasible farm-level productivity increases of up to 140% go hand-in-hand with increased resource-use efficiency and up to 50% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities. Absolute increases in water, land and nitrogen requirements in mixed crop-livestock systems call for careful management of stocks and quality of these resources. An overall rise in GHG emissions is expected, with a maximum of 53% increase associated with an 89% increase in milk supply at VC level. The CLEANED tool proved effective to evaluate livestock interventions that improve incomes and food security with minimal environmental footprint. Here, our simulations suggest that due to current low productivity, the greatest efficiency gains in combination with relatively low increases in total GHG emissions can be made in the extensive agro-pastoral dairy systems, which represent the majority of herds. Keywords Livestock development . Dairy . Ex-ante impact assessment . Environmental sustainability . Cost-benefit analysis . Decision-making
Communicated by Luis Lassaletta * An Notenbaert [email protected]
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Sustainable Systems and Grassland Research, Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, UK
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Present address: Carbon Management Centre, Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC), Peter Wilson Building, Kings Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK
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International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Regional Office for Africa, PO Box 823-00621, Nairobi, Kenya 10
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Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University and Research (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, Sweden
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CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Brisbane, Aust
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