Towards Operational Disequilibrium Macro Economics
Most re cent contributions to disequilibrium theory have a high level of abstraction. Empirical studies explicitly based on disequilibrium are still relatively scarce. However, empirical macro economics anticipated the theoretical development, and amalgam
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Towards Operational Disequilibrium Macro Economics
JAN C. SIEB RAND
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Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V. 1979
ISBN 978-90-247-2153-5 ISBN 978-94-017-3561-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-3561-2 © 1979 by Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Originally published by Martinus NijhojJ Publishers bv, The Hague in 1979. Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1979 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, phOlocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher, Springer-Science+ Business Media, B. V.
Contents
ix
list of symbols 1. Introduction 2. Quantity and price determination in disequilibrium 2.l. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. 2.5.
Introduction Causes of disequilibria Signs of disequilibrium The modeling of disequilibrium economics in general Some recent studies on the dynamics of price and quantity adjustment 2.6. The relevance of recent developments in disequilibrium theory for empirical macro economics 2.6.1. The limitations of available disequilibrium theory 2.6.2. The core of re cent contributions 2.6.3. The adaptation of disequilibrium theory to empirical macro economics 2.7. Quantity and price determination in the case of 'compromising' 2.7.1. Some simple models of quantity and price formation 2.7.2. Complications 2.7.2.1. The impact ofpast frustrations 2.7.2.2. Disequilibria in different markets 2.7.2.3. Ex ante adjustment 3. Statistical approximation to ex ante variables 3.1. Introduction 3.2. The principles of the approximation to ex ante demand and ex ante supply on the basis of data on actual transactions
xi 1
16 16 16 18 20 21 25 25 26 27 31 31 45 46 47 48 52 52
S3 v
3.2.1. Principles 3.2.2. Application problems 3.3. Conc1uding remarks
4. The application of the linear disequllibrium model to international trade 4.1. 4.2. ·4.3. 4.4.
Introduction The model Application of the model Evaluation Appendix to Chapter 4: A comment on the application of the iterative method
5. The application of the non-linear disequllibrium model to the labour' market 5.1. 5.2. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5.
Introduction The model Application of the model Evaluation Some additional empirical studies 5.5.1. An approximation to potential supply in the product market 5.5.2. An approximation to ex ante credit demand, ex ante credit supply, ex ante investment and ex ante consumption 5.5.3. Further empirical ex ante/ex post research Appendix to Chapter 5: An alternative estimation method
6. Simultaneous disequilibrium models for different markets 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. 6.4.
vi
Introduction The basic model in ex post terms An ex post model based on ex ante terms The determination of the ex ante terms 6.4.1. Introduction 6.4.2. The determination of planned variables 6.4.2.1. Expectation-approaches applied to plans 6.4.2.2. The determination of plans by means of behavioural functions 6.4.3. The determination of the terms from behavioural functions 6.4.3.1. The determination of expectations in
