Traditional livelihoods under a changing climate: herder perceptions of climate change and its consequences in South Gob
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Traditional livelihoods under a changing climate: herder perceptions of climate change and its consequences in South Gobi, Mongolia Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj 1,2 & Justine Shanti Alexander 3 & Gustaf Samelius 3 & Charudutt Mishra 3 & Bazartseren Boldgiv 2 Received: 26 May 2019 / Accepted: 26 August 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Climate change is affecting virtually all environments in the world today. The Central Asian mountains, where livestock herding is the main source of livelihood, are among the environments predicted to be most affected. In this paper, we use meteorological records and herder perceptions to improve the understanding of climate change and examine how different climate change scenarios will affect herder livelihoods in the Tost-Tosonbumba Nature Reserve of southern Mongolia. Herders with generation-long herding experience perceived that there had been changes in all eight meteorological variables examined in this study between 1995 and 2015, including winter temperature, summer temperature, summer precipitation, frequency of intense rain, frequency of drizzle rain, wind speed, number of windy days, and snow cover. Herder perceptions and meteorological data showed the same patterns for 3 of the 8 variables at α = 0.05 and for 5 of the 8 variables at α = 0.10. Herders also predicted that all 9 climate change scenarios presented would have negative impacts on their practices and livelihoods. Our work suggests that herder perceptions of climate change can provide important information on changes in the climate and insights on factors that put their livelihoods at risk. Keywords Herder perception . Future practice . Impacts . Risk . Climate variables . Rangeland
* Tserennadmid Nadia Mijiddorj [email protected]
1
Snow Leopard Conservation Foundation, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
2
Ecology Group, Department of Biology, School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14201, Mongolia
3
Snow Leopard Trust, 4649 Sunnyside Avenue North, Seattle, WA, USA
Climatic Change
1 Introduction There is strong evidence that the world’s climate is changing (Stocker et al. 2013; Trenberth 2012). Studies report increasing temperatures, changes in patterns of precipitation, and a rise in the frequency of extreme climatic events across the globe (IPCC 2013; Trenberth 2011; UNEP 2018). However, in many parts of the world, it is unclear how humans will respond to these changes (Oliver-Smith 2012). This lack of knowledge hampers the development of locally relevant adaptations to climate change (Marin 2010). In Central Asia, changes in climate are expected to have major impacts on the environment and the rangelands that people rely on for their livelihood (Angerer et al. 2008; Kjellstrom et al. 2009; Thornton et al. 2009). In Mongolia, the annual mean temperature is estimated to have increased by 2 °C since 1963 (Dagvadorj et al. 2014) and precipitation patterns have changed from gentle to heavy rains (Vandandorj et al. 2017). These changes have been shown to affect plant com
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