Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed
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Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed* GUO Yunxia1, 2, 4, HOU Yijun1, 2, 3, 4, **, QI Peng1, 3, 4 1
Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3
Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao
4
Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
266237, China
Received Nov. 21, 2019; accepted in principle Apr. 2, 2020; accepted for publication Apr. 21, 2020 © Chinese Society for Oceanology and Limnology, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China’s southeast coast. A technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard was developed based on the empirical track model, and used to generate 1 000-year virtual typhoons for Northwest Pacific basin. The influences of typhoon decay model, track model, and the extreme value distribution on the predicted extreme wind speed were investigated. We found that different typhoon decay models have least influence on the predicted extreme wind speed. Over most of the southeast coast of China, the predicted wind speed by the nonsimplified empirical track model is larger than that from the simplified tracking model. The extreme wind speed predicted by different extreme value distribution is quite different. Four super typhoons Meranti (2016), Hato (2017), Mangkhut (2018) and Lekima (2019) were selected and the return periods of typhoon wind speeds along the China southeast coast were estimated in order to assess the typhoon wind hazard. Keyword: typhoon; empirical track model; decay model; extreme wind speed; return period
1 INTRODUCTION China’s southeast coast is the region of the world that suffers most from severe typhoon disasters. Typhoons, known as hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, can create complex environments of high winds, heavy rainfall, huge wave heights, and huge storm surges throughout the region. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the typhoon hazard risk using typhoon wind hazard modeling and simulation methods. In the second half of the 20th century, the Monte Carlo simulation was adopted most widely for performing typhoon risk analysis. It uses a typhoon wind field model and typhoon history data to simulate the typhoon wind field and to predict the annual maximum wind speed. Both the United States (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2005) and Australia (Standards Association of Australia, 2002) use the method to compile design wind speed maps.
The simulation approach was first implemented by Russell (1968, 1971) for the Texas coast (USA). Since that pioneering study, the modeling technique has been expanded and improved by Batts et al. (1980), Shapiro (1983), Georgiou et al. (1983), Vickery and Twisdale (1995b), Meng et al. (1995), Simi
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