Unintended Consequences
Any action to manipulate a system to produce a desired outcome can generate one or more unintended consequences. We all know that a number of powerful and effective drugs for reducing or curing disease also produce harmful side effects. While scarcity and
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Abstract Any action to manipulate a system to produce a desired outcome can generate one or more unintended consequences. We all know that a number of powerful and effective drugs for reducing or curing disease also produce harmful side effects. While scarcity and high cost of food has led to malnutrition and starvation in many underdeveloped economies, solving of food problem is leading to obesity and other related ailments. With proper application of system knowledge, we can reduce or eliminate such negative consequences. However, not all unintended consequences are bad, as is the case with aspirin, which was originally used for pain relief but was later found to be an anticoagulant that reduces the possibility of heart attack. The chapter offers many examples of unintended negative and positive outcomes of our actions. They range from cobra effect to iron ore mining boom in Australia. The chapter ends with a discussion on ways to minimize or eliminate these unintended consequences.
9.1
Unintended Negatives and Positives
Unintended consequences are unexpected results of our actions, which are often detrimental. Sometimes they are called side effects, as in the case of a drug, which is effective in treating an ailment, but may also produce undesirable symptoms in a patient. In a complex system with many feedback loops, one cannot always be sure of all the outcomes of a deliberate action. Robert K. Merton, a well-known sociologist in a paper published in 1936,
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 A. Ghosh, Dynamic Systems for Everyone, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-43943-3_9
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Dynamic Systems for Everyone
“The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposeful Social Action” laid groundwork on this topic, where he listed five main reasons: • Ignorance—impossibility of anticipating everything, leading to incomplete analysis • Error—incorrect analysis • Immediate interest—addressing immediate symptoms rather than longterm causes • Basic values—basic beliefs and values of an individual or a society, which inhibit taking measures that are appropriate • Self-defeating prophecy—acting on a problem that may occur in the future leading to an increased possibility of that problem’s occurrence. In 1971, Professor Jay W. Forrester published a paper entitled “Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems,” where he stated that human mind is not adapted to interpret readily the behavior of social structures, which are multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems. However, he stated that proper development and use of social system models could lead to a better understanding of their structures and their behaviors.
9.1.1 Unintended Negatives There are many examples of unintended negative consequences. For example, rent control for properties in many major cities is intended to make housing more accessible for lower income tenants. However, that can also reduce the quantity and quality of housing. Property owners are often reluctant to maintain or improve their properties that are under such control because there is little fi
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