US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets
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US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets Felipe Feijoo 1 & Gokul Iyer 2 & Matthew Binsted 2 & James Edmonds 2 Received: 7 May 2019 / Accepted: 17 December 2019/ # Battelle Memorial Institute 2020
Abstract
Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision-makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global mean temperature increase over the century to 1.5 or 2 °C. While previous studies have explored the implications of such budgets for the global economy, few studies have conducted regional- and national-level analyses. This paper explores budgets through 2050 consistent with the 1.5 and 2 °C long-term temperature goals in the context of the USA. We employ a state-level model of the USA embedded within a global human-Earth system model (GCAM-USA) to study the implications of such budgets for the US energy system. Our results show that achieving the stringent budgets entails accelerated deployment of energy conserving technology, almost complete decarbonization of the power sector, increased electrification of buildings and industrial end-use sectors, and decarbonization of transport employing a combination of electrification and the substitution of fossil fuels for bioenergy. We also find substantial state-level differences in the relative roles of these decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, our results highlight that increased ambition in the near term will be valuable in setting the stage for smoother transformations in the future to achieve stringent budgets. Keywords Cumulative emissions budget . Deep decarbonization . Nationally determined contribution . Global Change Assessment Model . CD-LINKS
This article is part of a Special Issue on 'National Low-Carbon Development Pathways' edited by Roberto Schaeffer, Valentina Bosetti, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Detlef van Vuuren, and John Weyant. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002670-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Gokul Iyer [email protected]
1
School of Industrial Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
2
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA
Climatic Change
1 Introduction The 2015 Paris Agreement established a long-term goal to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C (UNFCCC 2015b). An important feature of the agreement is that nations establish their own goals called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and implement them with national policies and measures. While many countries have framed their NDCs in terms of specific actions (UNFCCC 2015a), e.g., deployment of renewable energy, in the long term, achieving the long-term goals of Paris implies limiting cumulative emissions (IPCC 2014). Although carbon budgets are subject to discrepancies, varying la
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