Violent disequilibrium: the influence of instability in the economic value of cocaine markets on homicides
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Violent disequilibrium: the influence of instability in the economic value of cocaine markets on homicides Alberto Aziani 1 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Scholars have investigated the escalation of violence associated with cocaine trafficking. Despite the plethora of literature on the matter, limited attention has been paid to the consequences of instability in the economic value of markets. This study addresses this shortcoming by examining fluctuation of the gross value added of cocaine markets in terms of an etiological factor in the upsurge of interpersonal lethal violence at country level. To this end, the study produces an estimate of the gross value added of the cocaine market in 126 countries between 1998 and 2013. The analysis indicates how expansions, but also contractions, of the value of cocaine markets influence the level of violence within the countries that constitute the global cocaine trafficking network. Keywords Cross-national study . Systemic violence . Theoretical perspectives . Cocaine
trafficking . Economy of crime, system GMM
Introduction The aim of this study is to assess whether economic instability within cocaine markets, measured in terms of fluctuations of the gross value added, is a catalyst of violence. The hypothesis proposed is that both increases and contractions in the profits generated by cocaine trafficking and distribution are likely to cause an increase in the use of violence among actors involved in this crime. Variations in the economic opportunities provided by the involvement in cocaine trafficking and distribution modify the competitive environment of cocaine markets. Since criminals active in the cocaine industry cannot access the institutions of the legal system and lack the means available to legal
* Alberto Aziani [email protected]
1
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and Transcrime, Largo Gemelli 1, 20123 Milan, Italy
Aziani A.
enterprises to cope with these changes, the modification of the competitive environment exacerbates their recourse to violence. Both expansions and contractions of cocaine trafficking profits are correlated with increases in recourse to interpersonal violence: the trigger element is the variation with respect to a previous equilibrium. Due to its status as one of the possible determinants of violence, the drug market has taken center stage within debates since the 1980s. In his seminal paper, Goldstein [1] identifies three potential ways in which drugs and violence are related: psychopharmacological, economic compulsive, and systemic. In particular, the systemic dimension pertains to the modes of violence consistent with lifestyles and business methods oriented around drug distribution and trafficking. Since the publication of Goldstein’s tripartite conceptual framework, the illegal drug trade has been identified by many scholars as a key driver of violence, with a veritable host of scholars now investigating the drug/violence nexus by applying this conceptual framework [2–5]. In recent decades, scholars have develop
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