Visceral leishmaniasis in northwest China from 2004 to 2018: a spatio-temporal analysis
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Visceral leishmaniasis in northwest China from 2004 to 2018: a spatio‑temporal analysis Canjun Zheng1, Liping Wang1, Yi Li2* and Xiao‑Nong Zhou3*
Abstract Background: Although visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a disease caused by parasites, is controlled in most provinces in China, it is still a serious public health problem and remains fundamentally uncontrolled in some northwest provinces and autonomous regions. The objective of this study is to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of VL in Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China from 2004 to 2018 and to identify the risk areas for VL transmission. Methods: Spatiotemporal models were applied to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of VL and the association between VL and meteorological factors in western China from 2004 to 2018. Geographic information of patients from the National Diseases Reporting Information System operated by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was defined according to the address code from the surveillance data. Results: During our study period, nearly 90% of cases occurred in some counties in three western regions (Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region), and a significant spatial clustering pattern was observed. With our spatiotemporal model, the transmission risk, autoregressive risk and epidemic risk of these coun‑ ties during our study period were also well predicted. The number of VL cases in three regions of western China concentrated on a few of counties. VL in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is still serious prevalent, and integrated control measures must be taken in different endemic areas. Conclusions: The number of VL cases in three regions of western China concentrated on a few of counties. VL in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is still serious prevalent, and integrated control measures must be taken in different endemic areas. Our findings will strengthen the VL control programme in China. Keywords: Visceral leishmaniasis, Spatio-temporal analysis, Spatial regression, China Background Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease that is endemic in more than 62 countries, with an estimated 1 300 000 new patients each year worldwide [1]. VL has been one of important public health problems in the People’s Republic of China. Prior to the initiation *Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected] 2 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China 3 Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
of a national control program in 1951, there were about 530 000 VL cases in China in 1951 [2–4]. The first confirmed case of VL in China was reported in 1907 [5]. In the following years, cases have b
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