Vulnerability Assessment and Modelling of Urban Growth Using Data Envelopment Analysis
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Vulnerability Assessment and Modelling of Urban Growth Using Data Envelopment Analysis Amanehalsadat Pouriyeh1 • Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi2 • Saied Pirasteh3 Received: 15 August 2019 / Accepted: 6 October 2020 Indian Society of Remote Sensing 2020
Abstract Determining the vulnerability of urban areas is one of the requirements that must be met before urban development to manage urban growth efficiently. This study aims to assess the vulnerability of urban areas using the data envelopment analysis method. We determined the physical growth of Yazd City in central Iran, utilizing the satellite images of 1976, 1984, 1993, 2006, and 2013. We studied the city’s growth in three districts as well as four different geographical directions in different years. Afterwards, this study identified the geomorphological indicators influential on the development of the districts. The constant return to scale additive model was designed and proposed to investigate different districts’ vulnerability and identify the areas with the highest and lowest vulnerability degrees. Finally, we introduced the districts with the least vulnerability as a pattern for the sustainable growth of the city. The modelling results show that District 2 in 1976 had the highest vulnerability (Z 0 ¼ 0). Despite having the smallest area (input), this district has the highest unsuitable performance in terms of the geomorphological indicators. The performance of other units was found appropriate. We compared Districts 2 and 3 with District 1 from the year 2013. Thus, the decision-making units reveals that Districts 2 and 3 in 2013 have the rank of 14 and 13, respectively, while District 1 has 8 with the lowest vulnerability of growth. It recognized that District 1 has the highest suitability performance and better sustainability than two other districts. Therefore, we recommend it to the government for the sustainable and smart growth of the city considering Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)-11. Keywords Modelling Vulnerability Urban growth Additive model Satellite images Geomorphological indicators
Introduction
& Saied Pirasteh [email protected] Amanehalsadat Pouriyeh [email protected] Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi [email protected] 1
Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2
Department of Mathematics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3
Department of Geoinformatics and Surveying, Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering (FGEE), Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 61156, China
In recent years, urban vulnerability has become the focus of discussion among urban geographers (Paul 2013). Vulnerability is defined as the potential and willingness to be exposed to dangerous events (Giupponi et al. 2015). In other words, vulnerability is the dangerousness of a location combined with potentially dangerous elements. It focuses on risk reduction strategies at the
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