What drives relocation policies in the Maldives?
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What drives relocation policies in the Maldives? Geronimo Gussmann 1,2
& Jochen Hinkel
1,3
Received: 23 March 2020 / Accepted: 28 October 2020 / Published online: 20 November 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
The predominant responses to rising sea levels are in situ adaptations. However, increasing rates of sea-level rise will render ex situ adaptations—in the form of relocations— inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones. Particularly small island states like the Maldives face this significant adaptation challenge. Here, government action is necessary to move vulnerable communities out of flood-prone areas. Yet, little empirical knowledge exists about the governance of relocations. While the literature often highlights risks and benefits of relocations, it remains unclear how governments organized relocations and what drove relocation policy. Therefore, we examined Maldivian relocation policies from 1968 to 2018 to explain government support of relocations. For this, we used a qualitative research design and extended the multiple streams approach with the theoretical lens of historical institutionalism. To gather data, we conducted semi-structured interviews (n = 23) with relocation policy experts and locals affected by relocations. Interview data was complemented with a desk review of relevant laws, historical records, and policy documents. We find 29 completed and 25 failed cases of relocations in the 50-year period. Key drivers of relocation policies are focusing events, socioeconomic development, and institutionalized island autonomy. We find that relocations were predominantly initiated as means to facilitate economic development, not as a response to rising seas or coastal risk. With current rapid economic development and strengthened democratic institutions, relocations are not considered as a policy option anymore. We conclude that implementing relocations proactively will face significant barriers in the future, which highlights the urgency of successful in situ adaptations in the Maldives. Keywords Sea-level rise . Coastal adaptation . Retreat . Multiple streams . New institutionalism
* Geronimo Gussmann [email protected]
1
Global Climate Forum, Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany
2
Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Invalidenstraße 42, 10099 Berlin, Germany
3
Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Invalidenstraße 42, 10099 Berlin, Germany
932
Climatic Change (2020) 163:931–951
1 Introduction Low-lying coastal zones and small island states face a significant adaptation challenge due to rising sea levels. Given the failure to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and the fact that sea levels will continue to rise for centuries due to the delayed response of the ocean to temperature increases (Oppenheimer et al. 2019), it is now consensus that coastal retreat will become inevitable for some communities in low-lying coastal zones (Siders et al. 2019). The emergin
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