Willingness of Stakeholders to Use Models for Climate Policy: The Delft Process

Participatory integrated assessments (PIAs) can be defined as ‘an IA approach in which social stakeholders… contribute their knowledge and policy preferences to the assessment of complex policy problems’ (Schlumpf et al. 1999: p. 2). PIAs often involve di

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Willingness of Stakeholders to Use Models for Climate Policy: The Delft Process Serge Stalpers and Carolien Kroeze

12.1

Introduction

Participatory integrated assessments (PIAs) can be defined as ‘an IA approach in which social stakeholders… contribute their knowledge and policy preferences to the assessment of complex policy problems’ (Schlumpf et al. 1999: p. 2). PIAs often involve dialogues between scientists, decision-makers and other stakeholders. Participatory research is increasingly used in integrated assessments (IAs) of climate change (Dahinden et al. 2000; Kloprogge and van der Sluijs 2006). PIAs differ with respect to their degree of involvement of stakeholders (Van de Kerkhof 2004). Here, we focus on PIAs with co-productive participation, where the IA is carried out in co-production between stakeholders and scientists (Van de Kerkhof 2004). In coproductive PIAs, participants decide what information to use and therefore also decide what models they are willing to use for producing the integrated insights in the PIA. Climate change, being characterized by large uncertainties and high decision stakes, is an example of a post-normal problem on which multiple legitimate perspectives on the problem exist (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1993; Van de Kerkhof and Leroy 2000). For such problems, Funtowicz and Ravetz (1993) propose a postnormal science approach, which, as opposed to the routine puzzle-solving approach of ‘normal’ science, explicitly manages uncertainties and spells out values. In a

S. Stalpers Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, P.O. Box 47 6700 AA, The Netherlands C. Kroeze (*) School of Science, Open University of the Netherlands, Heerlen, The Netherlands e-mail: [email protected]

M. Giaoutzi and B. Sapio (eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_12, © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

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post-normal approach, an ‘extended peer community’ of stakeholders evaluates the quality of scientific inputs to decision-making, so that the multiple legitimate perspectives on the problem are taken into account. Therefore, PIAs can help find solutions for climate policy that are scientifically credible, as well as socially legitimate. In addition, stakeholder participation is often used in IAs because it can foster learning – both by including stakeholder knowledge in the IA and by generating new knowledge through exchange of ideas between participants – and because it can improve implementation by involving actors who can implement policy options (Fiorino 1990; Stalpers et al. 2009). Integrated assessment models are promising tools for use in PIAs. Models have been applied extensively in IAs of climate change and are a means of using scientific knowledge as a basis for policymaking (Dowlatabadi 1995; Parker et al. 2002; Schröter et al. 2005b). Using models in PIAs is a promising means of making scientific knowledge accessible to participants, thereby