A Country Made for Disasters: Environmental Vulnerability and Forced Migration in Bangladesh
There is a broad consensus amongst the scientific community that South Asia is amongst the regions most affected by climate change. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) the main climate change impac
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A Country Made for Disasters: Environmental Vulnerability and Forced Migration in Bangladesh Alice Poncelet, Franc¸ois Gemenne, Marco Martiniello and Hassan Bousetta
1 Introduction There is a broad consensus amongst the scientific community that South Asia is amongst the regions most affected by climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) the main climate change impacts in the region are as follows: increased frequency of droughts and floods negatively affecting local production; sea-level rise exposing coasts to increasing risks, including coastal erosion and growing human-induced pressures on coastal areas; and glacier melt in the Himalayas with more flooding and rock avalanches. Crop yields could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-twenty-first century. Within South Asia, Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country because of its regional connectivity through geo-physical and hydrological features and its livelihood reliance on trade (ELIAMEP, 2008). Most of Bangladesh sits astride the deltas of a series of large rivers flowing from the Himalayas and about a third of the country is flooded every year during the monsoon. Many people live and farm on flood-prone land. Floods kill hundreds and make thousands homeless every year. The country is criss-crossed by 7 major rivers and over 200 minor ones. These rivers and tributaries define the geography of the country and the life style of its people. The rivers are the main sources of irrigation, the principal arteries for commercial transportation, and homes for fisheries and aquatic resources. This makes the communities living along the riverbanks predominantly dependent on the flood plains for their livelihoods and forces them to be more exposed to natural hazards like floods, cyclones, and droughts. The vulnerability is enhanced by problems like upstream river erosion and climate change (CBDM, 2008). Since it is a delta country, most parts of Bangladesh are less than 12 m above the sea level, and it is projected that about 50% of the land A. Poncelet (*) Centre for Ethnic and Migration Studies (CEDEM), University of Liege, Liege, Belgium e-mail: [email protected] T. Afifi, J. Ja¨ger (eds.), Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-12416-7_16, Ó Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
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would be flooded, if the sea level were to rise by 1 m (Ali, 1996). Consequently, floods occupy a unique position in the economy and culture of Bangladesh. Local people know how to live with regular floods, but their livelihoods are now at threat because of the ever-growing impacts of climate change. This chapter aims to assess the importance of environmental drivers in the current rural–urban migration flows. From this assessment, the migration behaviour of the population, when confronted with environmental change, is described. Particular attention is given to the thresholds that might induce mass migration as well as migr
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