A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Ze-Yu Zhao1†, Yuan-Zhao Zhu1†, Jing-Wen Xu1†, Shi-Xiong Hu2, Qing-Qing Hu3, Zhao Lei1, Jia Rui1, Xing-Chun Liu1, Yao Wang1, Meng Yang1, Li Luo1, Shan-Shan Yu1, Jia Li1, Ruo-Yun Liu1, Fang Xie1, Ying-Ying Su1, Yi-Chen Chiang1, Ben-Hua Zhao1, Jing-An Cui4, Ling Yin5, Yan-Hua Su1, Qing-Long Zhao6*, Li-Dong Gao2* and Tian-Mu Chen1*
Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model. Methods: An epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible–exposed–symptomatic–asymptomatic– recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] † Ze-Yu Zhao, Yuan-Zhao Zhu and Jing-Wen Xu contributed equally to this work. 6 Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 3145 Jingyang Big Road, Lvyuan District, Changchun 130062, Jilin Province, People’s Republic of China 2 Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 405 Furong Middle Road Section One, Kaifu District, Changsha City 410001, Hunan Province, People’s Republic of China 1 State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen City 361102, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creat
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