A Framework for Analyst Focus from Computed Significance
Attention is the critical resource for intelligence analysts, so tools that provide focus are useful. One way to determine focus is by computing significance. In the context of a known model, new data can be placed on a spectrum defined by: normal, anomal
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Series Editors Nasrullah Memon University of Southern Denmark Odense, Denmark
Reda Alhajj University of Calgary Calgary, AB, Canada
For further volumes: www.springer.com/series/8768
Uffe Kock Wiil Editor
Counterterrorism and Open Source Intelligence
Editor Uffe Kock Wiil The Maersk McKinney Moller Institute University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense Denmark [email protected]
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically those of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction by photocopying machines or similar means, and storage in data banks. Product Liability: The publisher can give no guarantee for all the information contained in this book. The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. c Springer-Verlag/Wien 2011 SpringerWienNewYork is a part of Springer Science + Business Media springer.at Typesetting: SPi, Pondicherry, India Printed on acid-free paper SPIN 80017735
With 182 (partly coloured) Figures Library of Congress Control Number: 2011931775 ISSN 2190-5428 ISBN 978-3-7091-0387-6 e-ISBN 978-3-7091-0388-3 DOI 10.1007/978-3-7091-0388-3 SpringerWienNewYork
Contents
Counterterrorism and Open Source Intelligence: Models, Tools, Techniques, and Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Uffe Kock Wiil 1 Introduction .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Organization .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Tools and Techniques .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Alternative Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Conclusion and Acknowledgments .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Part I
1 1 2 3 3 5 6 6
Models
Targeting by Transnational Terrorist Groups . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Alexander Gutfraind 1 Introduction .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 A Model of Transnational Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Operations Submodel .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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