A framework for estimating crime location choice based on awareness space
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(2020) 9:23 Curtis‑Ham et al. Crime Sci https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-020-00132-7
Open Access
THEORETICAL ARTICLE
A framework for estimating crime location choice based on awareness space Sophie Curtis‑Ham1* , Wim Bernasco2,3, Oleg N. Medvedev1 and Devon Polaschek1
Abstract This paper extends Crime Pattern Theory, proposing a theoretical framework which aims to explain how offenders’ previous routine activity locations influence their future offence locations. The framework draws on studies of indi‑ vidual level crime location choice and location choice in non-criminal contexts, to identify attributes of prior activities associated with the selection of the location for future crime. We group these attributes into two proposed mecha‑ nisms: reliability and relevance. Offenders are more likely to commit crime where they have reliable knowledge that is relevant to the particular crime. The perceived reliability of offenders’ knowledge about a potential crime location is affected by the frequency, recency and duration of their prior activities in that location. Relevance reflects knowledge of a potential crime location’s crime opportunities and is affected by the type of behaviour, type of location and tim‑ ing of prior activities in that location. We apply the framework to generate testable hypotheses to guide future studies of crime location choice and suggest directions for further theoretical and empirical work. Understanding crime loca‑ tion choice using this framework could also help inform policing investigations and crime prevention strategies. Keywords: Awareness space, Crime location choice, Crime pattern theory, Rational choice theory, Routine activity nodes The location of crime is not random; as we elaborate in this paper, offenders’ decisions about where they commit crime follow predictable patterns, that reflect decisionmaking processes common to human spatial behaviour more generally. In the context of criminology, understanding these processes at the individual level enables predictions that can inform policing strategies: where might a given person offend next? Who is more likely to have committed crime in that location? Much has already been done to advance our understanding of these processes. Foundationally, Crime Pattern Theory explains that offenders commit crime where crime opportunities coincide with their ‘awareness space’ around ‘activity nodes’; the places they learn to know during everyday
*Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Institute of Security and Crime Science and School of Psychology, University of Waikato, Knighton Road, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
activities (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1991, 1993). Further, a growing body of empirical research (discussed below) reveals that the associations between activity nodes and crime locations vary for different activity nodes. These variations hint at systematic mechanisms that mediate the relationship between activity nodes, opportunities, and crime.
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