A framework for national climate indicators
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A framework for national climate indicators Melissa A. Kenney 1
2
& Anthony C. Janetos & Michael D. Gerst
1
Received: 23 March 2018 / Accepted: 29 September 2018/ # The Author(s) 2018
Abstract Indicators have been proposed as critical elements for sustained climate assessment. Indicators provide a foundation for assessing change on an ongoing basis and presenting that information in a manner that is relevant to a broad range of decisions. As part of a sustained US National Climate Assessment, a pilot indicator system was implemented, informed by recommendations and (Kenney et al. 2014; Janetos and Kenney 2015; Kenney et al. Clim Chang 135(1):85–96, 2016). This paper extends this work to recommend a framework and topical categories for a system of climate indicators for the nation. We provide an overview of the indicator system as a whole: its goals, the design criteria for the indicators and the system as a whole, the selection of sectors, the use of conceptual models to transparently identify relevant indicators, examples of the actual indicators proposed, our vision for how the overall network can be used, and how it could evolve over time. Individual papers as part of this special issue provide system or sector-specific details as to how to operationalize the conceptual framework; these recommendations do not imply any decisions that are made ultimately by US federal agencies. Keywords Metrics . Global change . National Climate Assessment . Multidisciplinary . Decision support . Sustained assessment
1 Introduction There is a long history of the development of indicators in a wide range of environmental and social issues—sustainable forestry, the state of ecosystems, sustainable development goals, and economic performance (United Nations Statistical Commission 2017; National Research This article is part of a Special Issue on “National Indicators of Climate Changes, Impacts, and Vulnerability” edited by Anthony C. Janetos and Melissa A. Kenney Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-0182307-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Melissa A. Kenney [email protected] Anthony C. Janetos [email protected] Michael D. Gerst [email protected]
Climatic Change
Council 2015; Heinz Center 2008; Hall 2001). The need for indicators is part and parcel of decision-making about complex systems. It is not possible to know everything about such systems, so a reasonable alternative is to select a subset of measures that provide information on their state, extent, and changes—whether they are physical systems, social-economic systems, or mixes of both. As might be expected, the diversity of indicator systems is accompanied by a diversity of processes by which indicators have been developed and selected. Just focusing on indicator systems relevant to natural resource management, some have primarily been driven by user input (e.g., the Heinz Center’s State of the Nation’s Ecosystems) that were later adjust based on available data by a
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