Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale
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Effect of model calibration strategy on climate projections of hydrological indicators at a continental scale Yeshewatesfa Hundecha 1 & Berit Arheimer 1 & Peter Berg 1 & René Capell 1 & Jude Musuuza 1 & Ilias Pechlivanidis 1 & Christiana Photiadou 1 Received: 4 February 2020 / Accepted: 30 August 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
The effect of model calibration on the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators was assessed by employing variants of a pan-European hydrological model driven by forcing data from an ensemble of climate models. The hydrological model was calibrated using three approaches: calibration at the outlets of major river basins, regionalization through calibration of smaller scale catchments with unique catchment characteristics, and building a model ensemble by sampling model parameters from the regionalized model. The large-scale patterns of the change signals projected by all model variants were found to be similar for the different indicators. Catchment scale differences were observed between the projections of the model calibrated for the major river basins and the other two model variants. The distributions of the median change signals projected by the ensemble model were found to be similar to the distributions of the change signals projected by the regionalized model for all hydrological indicators. The study highlights that the spatial detail to which model calibration is performed can highly influence the catchment scale detail in the projection of climate change impact on hydrological indicators, with an absolute difference in the projections of the locally calibrated model and the model calibrated for the major river basins ranging between 0 and 55% for mean annual discharge, while it has little effect on the large-scale pattern of the projection. Keywords Model calibration . HYPE . Climate change . Europe . Ensemble modeling
This article is part of a Special Issue on “How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment”, edited by Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann and Zbigniew Kundzewicz. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002874-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Yeshewatesfa Hundecha [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction In the recent past, a large number of hydrological studies have focused on assessing the impact of climate change on hydrological variables that are considered crucial for different water sectors (e.g., Arheimer et al. 2017; Forzieri et al. 2014; Pechlivanidis et al. 2017). This has typically been done by employing hydrological models that operate at a global or continental scale (e.g., Dankers et al. 2014; Donnelly et al. 2017; Hagemann et al. 2013; Prudhomme et al. 2014), large river systems (Arheimer and Lindström 2015; Krysanova et al. 2017), or catchment scales (Vormoor et al. 2015; Pechlivanid
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