A generalized probability distribution of annual discharge derived from correlation dimension analysis in six main basin
- PDF / 2,407,734 Bytes
- 12 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 76 Downloads / 179 Views
ORIGINAL PAPER
A generalized probability distribution of annual discharge derived from correlation dimension analysis in six main basins of China Guangsheng Wang1 • Xi Chen2,3 • Chengpeng Lu3 • Junchao Shi1 • Jinfeng Zhu4
Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The probability distributions of hydrological series are primarily determined according to the best fitting of empirical probability from observation data. The fitted distribution functions are variable in different watersheds, and thus difficult to be applied to estimate probability of any discharge occurrence at other stations. In this study, chaotic characteristics of annual discharge series are analyzed by using correlation dimension analysis at 12 hydrological stations in the six main rivers in China. It is found that the correlation integral of annual discharge series represents the probability distribution of difference between any two annual discharges. The derived probability function can be perfectly fitted by the Pearson III function. Although the six basins have distinctively different climate conditions from the northern cold temperature zone to the southern subtropical zone, the correlation dimension of chaotic characteristics for annual discharges are similar at the 12 hydrological stations. The mean of difference between any two annual discharges, the maximum and minimum of annual discharge are found to be high correlation with the mean of annual discharge. Moreover, the derived probability distributions at 12 hydrological stations can be normalized by a universal distribution function, and the derived probability is high correlation with the probability distribution of annual discharge. This universal probability distribution can be easily applied to obtain probability distributions of annual discharge series over any stations. Keywords Correlation dimension analysis Probability distribution Pearson III function Annual discharge Main river in China
1 Introduction In water resources management such as water supplies, hydropower and irrigation systems, probability analysis on annual streamflow series is required for estimation of & Guangsheng Wang [email protected] Xi Chen [email protected] Chengpeng Lu [email protected]
frequency that any specific streamflow occurs (e.g. 25, 50 and 75% recurrence intervals) (Blo¨schl and Sivapalan 1995; Helsel and Hirsch 2002; Kantelhardt et al. 2001). For appropriate estimation and prediction of statistical characteristics of a hydrological variable of interest at a site or 2
Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
3
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
4
Department of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
Junchao Shi [email protected] Jinfeng Zhu [email protected] 1
Hydrology and Water Resources Monitoring and Forecasting Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
123
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assess
Data Loading...
