A machine learning forecasting model for COVID-19 pandemic in India
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ORIGINAL PAPER
A machine learning forecasting model for COVID-19 pandemic in India R. Sujath1 • Jyotir Moy Chatterjee2
•
Aboul Ella Hassanien3
Ó Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an inflammation disease from a new virus. The disease causes respiratory ailment (like influenza) with manifestations, for example, cold, cough and fever, and in progressively serious cases, the problem in breathing. COVID-2019 has been perceived as a worldwide pandemic and a few examinations are being led utilizing different numerical models to anticipate the likely advancement of this pestilence. These numerical models dependent on different factors and investigations are dependent upon potential inclination. Here, we presented a model that could be useful to predict the spread of COVID-2019. We have performed linear regression, Multilayer perceptron and Vector autoregression method for desire on the COVID-19 Kaggle data to anticipate the epidemiological example of the ailment and pace of COVID-2019 cases in India. Anticipated the potential patterns of COVID-19 effects in India dependent on data gathered from Kaggle. With the common data about confirmed, death and recovered cases across India for over the time length helps in anticipating and estimating the not so distant future. For extra assessment or future perspective, case definition and data combination must be kept up persistently. Keywords COVID-19 Prediction Linear regression (LR) Multilayer perceptron (MLP) Vector autoregression (VAR)
1 Introduction As of date confirmed COVID-19 cases1 across the globe are 1,498,833 and mortality approximately 5.8%. Gradually the mortality rate is increasing and it’s an alarming factor for the whole world. Transmission is categorized into 4 stages based on the mode of spread and time. Every nation imposed different methodologies starting from staying in-home, using masks, travel restrictions, avoiding social gatherings, frequently washing hands and sanitizing the places often in the case of a common effort to combat & Jyotir Moy Chatterjee [email protected] R. Sujath [email protected] Aboul Ella Hassanien [email protected] 1
Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, India
2
Lord Buddha Education Foundation, Kathmandu, Nepal
3
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence, Cairo University and Scientific Research Group in Egypt (SRGE), Giza, Egypt
the outbreak of this disease. Many countries imposed a lockdown state that prevents the movement of the citizens unnecessarily. Due to this social distancing factor and movement restrictions, the wellbeing and economy of the various nations are being under jeopardy. GPD of the entire world dropped drastically. When the person is found infected, he is isolated and treatment is given for recovery. But based on the severity it will cause death and also people left with a higher level of depression. In India, the outbreak of coronavirus as disturbed the functioning of life as a whole. all were pushed to
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