COVID-19 pandemic in India: a mathematical model study
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ORIGINAL PAPER
COVID-19 pandemic in India: a mathematical model study Sudhanshu Kumar Biswas · Jayanta Kumar Ghosh · Susmita Sarkar · Uttam Ghosh
Received: 12 July 2020 / Accepted: 14 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The present novel coronavirus (SARSCoV-2) infection has created a global emergency situation by spreading all over the world in a large scale within very short time period. But there is no vaccine, anti-viral medicine for such infection. So at this moment, a major worldwide problem is that how we can control this pandemic. On the other hand, India is high population density country, where the coronavirus infection disease (COVID-19) has started from 1 March 2020. Due to high population density, human to human social contact rate is very high in India. So controlling pandemic COVID-19 in early stage is very urgent and challenging problem of India. Mathematical models are employed to study the disease dynamics, identify the influential parameters and access the proper prevention strategies for reduction outbreak size. In this work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the model parameters by fitting the model with reported data of ongoing pandemic in India. Sensitivity analysis has been done to identify the influential model parameters. The basic reproduction number has been estimated from actual data and the effective basic reproduction number has been studied on the basis of reported cases. Some effective preventive measures and their impact S. K. Biswas Sripat Singh College, Murshidabad, West Bengal, India J. K. Ghosh · S. Sarkar · U. Ghosh (B) Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India e-mail: [email protected]
have also been studied. Prediction are given on the future trends of the virus transmission under some control measures. Finally, the positive measures to control the disease have been summarized in the conclusion section. Keywords Basic reproduction number · COVID19 · Asymptomatic class · Quarantine · Sensitivity analysis · Prevention measure Mathematics Subject Classification 37N25 · 49J15 · 92D30
1 Introduction The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a worldwide infectious disease in the current time [1–5]. Including this year pandemic, world faces severe attack by coronavirus several times, and some of those are SARS-CoV [6], MERS-CoV [7–10] and SARS-CoV2 [11]. The symptom of all coronavirus patients is same; they suffer with respiratory problem, fever, dry cough, etc., but COVID-19 is more infectious compare to predecessors [11]. Most of the countries throughout the world are affected by this disease and its harmfulness is increasing day to day. The disease is spreading among different countries mainly through air-travel mode as large number of people is travelling from one country to another [12–14]. To control the disease spreading, WHO provided an advisory to all the counties regard-
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ing screening of people at both ends: exit and
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