A new tsunami runup predictor
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A new tsunami runup predictor Martin Wronna1 · Maria Ana Baptista1,2 · Utku Kânoğlu3 Received: 6 February 2020 / Accepted: 30 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract We introduce a new parameter, tsunami runup predictor (TRP), relating the accelerating phase of the wave to the length of the beach slope over which the wave is travelling. We show the existence of a relationship between the TRP and the runup for different initial waveforms, i.e. leading elevation N-waves (LENs) and leading depression N-waves (LDNs). Then, we use the TRP to estimate tsunami runup for past tsunami events. The comparison of the runup estimates against field data gives promising results. Thus, the TRP provides first-order estimates of tsunami runup once the offshore waveform is known or estimated and, therefore, it could be beneficial to be implemented in tsunami early warning systems. Keywords Rapid tsunami runup prediction · Tsunami hazard · Tsunami early warning systems · Analytical runup computation · Nonlinear shallow water-wave modelling
1 Introduction Tsunamis have been causing enormous loss of lives and assets repeatedly (Synolakis and Bernard 2006; Kânoğlu et al. 2015). Preparedness and timely early warning could mitigate losses for future events. There are a limited number of operational forecasting methodologies such as the ones used at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Titov et al. 2016), the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BKGM) (Rudloff et al. 2009), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (2013), and the Australia Tsunami Warning Systems (Greenslade et al. 2019). One significant guiding parameter in tsunami warning is the maximum runup, defined as the difference in elevation between the maximum tsunami penetration and the still water * Martin Wronna [email protected] Maria Ana Baptista [email protected] Utku Kânoğlu [email protected] 1
Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal
2
Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
3
Department of Aerospace Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
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Natural Hazards
Fig. 1 Definition sketch. a The shoreline is located at the origin of the coordinate system. R shows the maximum runup. 𝛽 is the beach slope angle, and d is the ocean depth at maximum amplitude. Wave parameters: x1 and x2 are the distances of the maximum amplitude of the crest h+ and the minimum amplitude of the trough h− to the shore, respectively. 𝜆 shows the wavelength. Fault plane parameters: D , W , 𝛿 and s are the depth of the fault top to the ocean bottom, the width of the fault, the dip of the fault, and the fault slip amount, respectively; b definition parameters for LDNs; lp is the horizontal length of the wave face, and h+ and h− are the positive and negative amplitudes, respectively; c definition parameters for LENs; lp is the horizontal length of the wave face, and h+ is the positive
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