A nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with Ewing sarcoma: a SEER-based study
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(2020) 21:737
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
A nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with Ewing sarcoma: a SEERbased study Zhenggang Zhou1, Jinyu Wang1, Liming Fang1, Jianlin Ma1* and Mingbo Guo2
Abstract Background: Ewing sarcoma, the second most frequent bone tumor in children and adolescents, is often presented with localized disease or metastatic-related symptoms. In this study, we aim to construct and validate a nomogram for patients with Ewing sarcoma to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods: Demographic and clinic pathological characteristics of patients with Ewing sarcoma diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were carried out to identify the independent characteristics. The independent factors were further included into the construction of a nomogram. Finally, c-index and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram. Results: A total of 578 patients were enrolled into our analysis. The results of univariate Cox analysis showed that age, 7th AJCC stage, 7th AJCC T stage, 7th AJCC N stage, 7th AJCC M stage, metastatic status to lung, liver and bone were significant factors. Multivariate Cox analysis was performed and it confirmed age, N stage and bone metastasis as independent variables. Next, a nomogram was constructed using these independent variables in prediction to the 3and 5-year OS. Furthermore, favorable results with c-indexes (0.757 in training set and 0.697 in validation set) and calibration curves closer to ideal curves indicated the accurate predictive ability of this nomogram. Conclusions: The individualized nomogram demonstrated a good ability in prognostic prediction for patients with Ewing sarcoma. Keywords: Nomogram, SEER, Ewing sarcoma, Overall survival
Background Ewing sarcoma, the second most frequent bone tumor in children and adolescents, is often presented with localized disease or metastatic-related symptoms [1]. There are several clinical parameters influencing the survival of patients with Ewing sarcoma. Age, tumor stage, tumor location, metastatic disease, chemotherapy and surgery have been found to have impacts on overall survival (OS) in patients * Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Spine Surgery, Qingdao Chengyang People’s Hospital, No.600 Changcheng Road, Chengyang District, Qingdao, Shandong Province 266109, People’s Republic of China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
with Ewing sarcoma [2–7]. The aim of this study is to integrate prognostic parameters into analysis and predict outcomes in patients with Ewing sarcoma. As a statistical prognostic model, the nomogram represents a pattern of graph, in which variables are given marks, and therefore it easily assesses the probability of a certain event, in comparison with traditional evaluation standards [8]. In recent years, this model has been widely applied as the increased need of individual
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