Nomogram for individually predicting overall survival in rectal neuroendocrine tumours
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Nomogram for individually predicting overall survival in rectal neuroendocrine tumours Xingyu Feng1†, Gengzhou Wei2†, Wei Wang3, Yu Zhang4, Yujie Zeng5, Minhu Chen4, Ye Chen6, Jie Chen4*, Zhiwei Zhou3* and Yong Li1*
Abstract Background: This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts the overall survival (OS) of rectal neuroendocrine tumours (NETs). Methods: We retrospectively analysed 310 patients with rectal neuroendocrine tumours in 5 hospitals in southern China. All of the patients were assigned to the training set. A multivariable analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set, and a nomogram was constructed. It was validated on a dataset obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database of America (n = 547). Results: In the training set, the nomogram exhibited improved discrimination power compared with the WHO grade guidelines (Herrell’s C-index, 0.872 vs 0.794; p < 0.001) and was also better than the seventh AJCC TNM classification (Herrell’s C-index, 0.872 vs 0.817; p < 0.001). In the SEER validation dataset, the discrimination was also excellent (C-index, 0.648 vs 0.583, p < 0.001 and 0.648 vs 0.603, p = 0.016, respectively, compared with G grade and TNM classification). Calibration of the nomogram predicted individual survival corresponding closely with the actual survival. Conclusions: We developed a nomogram predicting 1- and 3-year OS of patients with rectal neuroendocrine tumours. Validation revealed excellent discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility. Keywords: Rectal neoplasms, Neuroendocrine tumours, Nomogram, Overall survival
* Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] † Xingyu Feng and Gengzhou Wei contributed equally to this work. 4 Department of Gastroenterology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, No. 58, Zhongshan Er Road, Guangzhou, P.R. China 3 Department of Gastric Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, No. 651 Dongfeng Road East, Guangzhou 510060, P.R. China 1 Department of General Surgery, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, The Second School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, No. 106, Zhongshan Er Road, Guangzhou, P.R. China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the materia
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