A Parametric Control Model for Implementing the National Healthcare Project
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NTROL IN SOCIAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
A Parametric Control Model for Implementing the National Healthcare Project A. A. Ashimov∗,a , Yu. V. Borovskiy∗,b, and M. A. Onalbekov∗,c ∗
Satbayev Kazakh National Technical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan e-mail: a [email protected], b [email protected], c [email protected] Received August 20, 2019 Revised October 29, 2019 Accepted November 28, 2019
Abstract—The problems of scenario analysis and optimization of the conditions for implementing a national project using the theory of parametric control are formulated. To solve the problems posed, a global dynamic multi-country computable general equilibrium model is proposed. The approaches to solving the problems of scenario analysis and optimization are illustrated by an example of the National Healthcare Project and its federal projects implemented in Russia. Keywords: national project, scenario analysis, theory of parametric control, computable general equilibrium model DOI: 10.1134/S0005117920070085
1. INTRODUCTION The macroeconomic policy of any country is not limited to the assignment and further implementation of the target values of its tools. The development and implementation of large-scale socioeconomic projects for stimulating separate sectors of a national economy (accompanied by appropriate budget financing) also affect the country’s macroeconomic and sectoral indices. Examples of such socioeconomic projects are 13 National Projects of Russia [1, 2], which have to be implemented in 2019–2024. Topical problems related to the country’s macroeconomic policy, including the implementation of a socioeconomic project, are as follows: —forecasting the values of macroeconomic and sectoral indices under various financing scenarios of the project under consideration and —determining the optimal conditions for implementing the project under consideration (e.g., distributing the financial resources allocated to the project across the years), in terms of a given macroeconomic criterion subject to appropriate constraints. In the well-known literature, the effect on the country’s economy and separate sectors from implementing various macroeconomic policy tools is estimated using computable general equilibrium models (CGE models) [3, 4]. However, note that in these as well as in other references [5–7], the optimal distribution of budget funds allocated to the project under consideration has not yet been studied so far. To solve the problems posed in this paper, a global dynamic multi-country CGE model (hereinafter referred to as the Model) is proposed [9]. This model is developed by the authors based on the static model GLOBE 1; see [8]. More specifically, the Model is used to formulate and solve a parametric control problem for estimating the optimal values of the following parameters: annual budget funds allocated for the 1271
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implementation of federal projects (within the total budgets of such projects) that are included in the National Healthcare Project of Russia; effective tax rates on factors used by a corres
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