A Quantity-Based Method to Predict More Accurate Project Completion Time
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pISSN 1226-7988, eISSN 1976-3808 www.springer.com/12205
DOI 10.1007/s12205-020-1924-y
Construction Management
A Quantity-Based Method to Predict More Accurate Project Completion Time Hsien-Kuan Chang
a
, Wen-Der Yu
a
, and Tao-Ming Cheng
a
a
Dept. of Construction Engineering, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taichung 41349, Taiwan
ARTICLE HISTORY
ABSTRACT
Received 23 October 2019 Accepted 18 May 2020 Published Online 5 August 2020
‘Completion in time’ is a crucial element of project management. Previous studies show that earned value management (EVM), earned schedule method, or earned duration management do not give an accurate project completion time estimation (PCTE) because of theoretical weaknesses. Inaccurate PCTE may provide misleading information, so that the project manager cannot take effective schedule control actions timely, and thus it results in failure of project time management. To improve the above-mentioned problem, this research proposes a quantity-based project duration estimating method (Q-PDEM), which calculates the PCTE using the de facto work quantities and the updated productivity information of activities. The results of two case studies show that the proposed Q-PDEM gives a 7.55% better mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than the existing methods for predicted project completion duration for Case I, and 24.54% for Case II. It is concluded that the proposed Q-PDEM gives a more accurate estimation of the time for project completion and allows more effective control of the project schedule.
KEYWORDS Project completion prediction Critical path method Activity productivity Earned value management Earned schedule management Earned duration management
1. Introduction ‘Completion in time’ is a crucial objective for a construction project. Accurate project completion time estimation (PCTE) during the execution stage is important for project time management because it allows the detection of potential delays so timely actions can be used to control the schedule. Inaccurate PCTE may provide misleading information, so that the project manager cannot take effective schedule control actions timely. In worse cases, it may result in failures of project time management. Unfortunately, the traditional PCTE methods are inadequate in providing accurate PCTE. It is very desirable to develop a more accurate PCTE method. Traditional PCTE are classified into three main categories: 1) the cost-based earned value management (EVM) method (Batselier and Vanhoucke, 2015), 2) the time-based earned schedule method (ESM) (Lipke, 2003) and 3) the duration-based earned duration management (EDM) method (Khamooshi and Golafshani, 2014). Previous studies have shown several inherent weaknesses in traditional PCTE methods as described in the following: the schedule performance index (SPIc) for EVM always converges to 1.0, regardless of how much the project is delayed during execution (Lipke, 2003). EVM and ESM do not reflect the CORRESPONDENCE Wen-Der Yu
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ⓒ 2020 Korean Society of Civi
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