An adding/deleting approach to improve land change modeling: a case study in Qeshm Island, Iran
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ORIGINAL PAPER
An adding/deleting approach to improve land change modeling: a case study in Qeshm Island, Iran Ali Kourosh Niya 1 & Jinliang Huang 1 & Ali Kazemzadeh-Zow 2 & Babak Naimi 3 Received: 21 December 2018 / Accepted: 3 May 2019 / Published online: 20 May 2019 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2019
Abstract Land use/cover change (LUCC) simulation models are helpful tools for decision makers because of their capacity of predicting the landscape dynamics under various scenarios and thereby developing countermeasures. Developing LUCC models with high reliability still remains challenging due to complicated influencing of natural and anthropogenic factors. An adding/deleting approach is proposed in this study to explore whether and to what extent it can improve the accuracy of a hybrid LUCC model involved with cellular automata, Markov chain, and artificial neural network in the Qeshm Island, the biggest island in the Persian Gulf. The accuracy assessment was conducted by comparing the simulation results obtained from the models with the maps derived from Landsat image in 2014. The results revealed that the adding/deleting approach could improve the prediction accuracy of the model for the majority of land use classes as the area of the correctly predicted classes increased to 7.2 km2, which is greater than 6.09 km2 without using the approach. We further compared the results derived from the proposed approach with those from cellular automata-Markov chain-artificial neural network, Markov chain-artificial neural network, and cellular automata-Markov chain-logistic regression, resulting in the Figure of Merit index of 7.8 with this approach, compared to 6.7, 5.1, and 4.5 with the other three models mentioned above. This study demonstrates that the proposed approach is effective for improving the performance of LUCC modeling. Keywords Land use/cover change modeling . Cellular automata-Markov chain . Adding/deleting . Qeshm Island
Introduction
Editorial handling: C. Gokceoglu * Jinliang Huang [email protected] Ali Kourosh Niya [email protected] Ali Kazemzadeh-Zow [email protected] Babak Naimi [email protected] 1
Coastal & Ocean Management Institute, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
2
Department of RS and GIS, Geography Faculty, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Land use/cover (LU/LC) and its underlying anthropogenic exploitation are crucial links between human activities and the natural environment on the Earth (Liu et al. 2017a, b; Muceku et al. 2016). Spatiotemporal LUCC simulations are beneficial and repeatable tools for studying and analyzing causes, trends, and consequences of alternative future landscape dynamics relative to socio-economic and natural environmental driving forces (Jia et al. 2018; Liu et al. 2017a, b; Verburg et al. 2004). The experimental modeling of land use changes is a complicated spatial dynamic and a nonlinear process (Verburg et al. 2002) to identify the pat
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