Climate change impacts on floodway and floodway fringe: a case study in Shahrchay River Basin, Iran
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Climate change impacts on floodway and floodway fringe: a case study in Shahrchay River Basin, Iran Aidin Rahmani-Rezaeieh 1 & Mirali Mohammadi 1,2
&
Ali Danandeh Mehr 3
Received: 18 January 2020 / Accepted: 16 May 2020 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2020
Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the floodway and floodway fringe along the Shahrchi River located at Lake Urmia Basin, Iran. The raw historical (1971–2000) and near future (2021–2050) precipitation and temperature data were obtained from Middle East and North Africa domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The projections from the global climate model were corrected using daily observations from in situ stations and then used as inputs for SWAT+ hydrological model to forecast daily streamflow under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario at the near future period. Flood frequency analysis at each period was accomplished and floodway and floodway fringe were obtained through flood wave routing along the river and a multi-criteria decision-making approach, respectively. The results indicated that the climate model typically underestimates the temperature and precipitation values at the historical period and the future projections need to be adjusted. In addition, a significant decrease in total runoff volume in the future periods is expected; however, the hydrologic models showed that the number and magnitude of peak flows would be increased. Keywords Climate change . Floodway . RCP8.5 . CORDEX . SWAT+ . Floodway fringe
Introduction As one of the most important resources of freshwater, rivers have always been centers for the development and civilizations. Human history showed that rivers have often undergone natural and artificial changes due to their exploitation. Maintaining diverse functions of a river and its floodplain is essential to ensure sustainable development along the rivers, so that each part of a floodplain can perform its natural function appropriately. Floodplain zoning according to the different functions of a floodplain identifies the areas that development activities within may alter flood risk or inundation Responsible Editor: Zhihua Zhang * Mirali Mohammadi [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch, Najafabad, Iran
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Urmia University, P.O. Box 165, Urmia, Iran
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Antalya Bilim University, Antalya, Turkey
behavior. The delineation of a floodplain based on potential flood hazard is a useful tool for determining risky areas. However, there is no specific procedure for identifying those areas known as special flood hazard area (SFHA; Bourget and Pajak 1995). During the past decades, numerous studies have suggested variety of procedures to map SFHA along a watercourse either in catchment or regional scale (Ajjur and Mogheir 2020; Alfieri et al. 2014; Altunkaynak and Bizimana 2020; Bourget a
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