An approach for assessing ecosystem-based adaptation in coral reefs at relatively high latitudes to climate change and h

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An approach for assessing ecosystem-based adaptation in coral reefs at relatively high latitudes to climate change and human pressure Yongzhi Wang & Kefu Yu & Xiaoyan Chen & Wenhuan Wang & Xueyong Huang & Yinghui Wang & Zhiheng Liao

Received: 18 January 2020 / Accepted: 30 July 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Abstract Relatively high-latitude waters are supposed as a refuge for corals under ocean warming. A systematic assessment of the Weizhou Island reef in the northern South China Sea, a relatively high-latitude region, shows that the ecosystem restoration index decreased from 0.96 to 0.62 during the period between 1990 and 2015. Although the biotic community, supporting services, and regulating services remained at good or very good states, the provisioning services, cultural services, and especially habitat structure deteriorated to very poor or moderate states. Gray relational analysis showed that these ecological declines exhibited a strong relationship

with human pressures from tourism activities and the petrochemical industry. The recoveries of the biotic community and supporting services that benefited from wintertime warming appeared to be partly offset by intensive human pressures. The long-term effects on ecosystem structure and functions suggest that anthropogenic disturbances have impaired the possibility of this area serving as a potential thermal refuge for reefbuilding corals in the South China Sea. This study thus provides an integrated approach for assessing the adaptive responses of coral reef ecosystems to climate change and local human activities.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08534-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Keywords Integrated ecosystem assessment . Gray relational analysis . Ecosystem services . Coral reef ecosystem . Weizhou Island

Y. Wang : K. Yu : X. Chen : W. Wang : X. Huang : Y. Wang : Z. Liao Guangxi Laboratory on the Study of Coral Reefs in the South China Sea, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004 Guangxi, China Y. Wang : K. Yu : X. Chen : W. Wang : X. Huang : Y. Wang : Z. Liao Coral Reef Research Center of China, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004 Guangxi, China Y. Wang : K. Yu : X. Chen : W. Wang : X. Huang : Y. Wang : Z. Liao School of Marine Sciences, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004 Guangxi, China K. Yu (*) : X. Chen (*) Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519000 Guangdong, China e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected]

Introduction Recent studies have raised concerns about how ecosystems acclimatize to the warming climate (Jones et al. 2012; Pandolfi 2015; Spalding et al. 2014). Coral reefs are the most responsive ecosystem to temperature anomalies (Pandolfi 2015). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that exceed a specific temperature range (18–30 °C) disfavor the growth of corals (Kleypas et al. 1999; Spalding and Brown 2015). At low latitudes, summertime warming has led to numerous coral