An emergency decision making method based on the multiplicative consistency of probabilistic linguistic preference relat
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
An emergency decision making method based on the multiplicative consistency of probabilistic linguistic preference relations Jie Gao1,2 · Zeshui Xu3,4 · Peijia Ren3 · Huchang Liao3 Received: 29 October 2017 / Accepted: 5 June 2018 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018
Abstract As the evolution of emergencies is often uncertain, it may lead to multiple emergency scenarios. According to the characteristics of emergency management, this paper proposes an emergency decision support method by using the probabilistic linguistic preference relations (PLPRs) whose elements are the pairwise comparisons of alternatives given by the decisionmakers (DMs) in the form of probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs). As the decision data are limited, it is difficult for the DMs to provide exact occurrence probabilities of all possible emergency scenarios. Thus, we propose a probability correction method by using the computer-aided tool named the case-based reasoning (CBR) to obtain more accurate and reasonable occurrence probabilities of the probabilistic linguistic elements (PLEs). Then, we introduce a multiplicative consistency index to judge whether a PLPR is consistent or not. Afterwards, an acceptable multiplicative consistency-based emergency decision support method is proposed to get more reliable results. Furthermore, a case study about the emergency decision making in a petrochemical plant fire accident is conducted to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, some comparative analyses are performed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Keywords Emergency decision making · Probabilistic linguistic preference relations (PLPRs) · Multiplicative consistency · Probability correction
1 Introduction
* Zeshui Xu [email protected] Jie Gao karina‑[email protected] Peijia Ren [email protected] Huchang Liao [email protected] 1
Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610207, China
2
School of Economics and Management, Sichuan Tourism University, Chengdu 610100, China
3
Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China
4
School of Computer and Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China
After the 9/11 incident happened in the United States, the international community has paid more attention to public safety and emergency management. Thus, how to choose an effective emergency response plan and organize it quickly to reduce casualties and property losses has been reconsidered by governments, public and scholars all over the world. In reality, a variety of emergencies occur frequently and the evolution of emergencies is often uncertain. This may lead to multiple emergency scenarios. Through the establishment and improvement of emergency response support technique, we can improve the efficiency of emergency decision making. Considering the urgency of time and the complicated situation when an emergency happens, emergency commanders often or
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