An Improved PL-VIKOR Model for Risk Evaluation of Technological Innovation Projects with Probabilistic Linguistic Term S

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An Improved PL-VIKOR Model for Risk Evaluation of Technological Innovation Projects with Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets Liping Li1 • Qisheng Chen1 • Xiaofeng Li1 • Xunjie Gou1

Received: 1 March 2020 / Revised: 24 June 2020 / Accepted: 23 September 2020 Ó Taiwan Fuzzy Systems Association 2020

Abstract Risk evaluation is a primary but important task for technological innovation projects and this task is a multiple criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) process with probabilistic uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty. Compromise programming decision-making methods with probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs) are more appropriate for risk evaluation of technological innovation projects. This paper proposes a new approach named improved probabilistic linguistic-vise kriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje (PL-VIKOR) method with probabilistic linguistic term sets for risk evaluation of technological innovation projects. Firstly, by fully considering both the relationship between each alternative and the positive ideal solution and the relationship between each alternative and negative ideal solution, the improved PLVIKOR method for dealing with MCGDM problems is developed to make up the deficiency of the traditional PLVIKOR method. Then, the improved PL-VIKOR method is applied to solve a practical MCGDM problem with probabilistic linguistic term sets involving the risk evaluation of technologically innovative projects for venture capital. Finally, we make some comparative analyses between the improved PL-VIKOR method and some existing methods & Xunjie Gou [email protected] Liping Li [email protected]

to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method. The results reflect that the improved PLVIKOR method is more reasonable when calculating the distance measure between two PLTSs, and it can make the risk evaluation of technological innovation project MCGDM with PLTSs more objective. Keywords Probabilistic linguistic term sets  Improved PL-VIKOR method  Multiple criteria group decisionmaking  Risk evaluation  Technological innovation projects  Venture capital Abbreviations VIKOR PL-VIKOR

PLTSs MCGDM LTS FTA AHP TBM FMEA DEMATEL PL-TOPSIS

Qisheng Chen [email protected] Xiaofeng Li [email protected] 1

Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, Sichuan, China

PLMULTIMOORA

VIse kriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje Probabilistic linguistic-vise kriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje Probabilistic linguistic term sets Multiple criteria group decisionmaking Linguistic term set Fault-tree analysis Analytic hierarchy process Tunnel boring machine Failure modes and effects analysis Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Probabilistic linguistic-technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution Probabilistic linguistic-multi-objective analysis by ratio analysis plus the full multiplicative form

123

International Journal of Fuzzy Systems

PL-LINMAP

PL-GLDS PL-ORESTE

PL-ELECTRE PLPROMETHEE PLQUALIFLEX PL-GRA PL-DNMA

Proba