Flood disaster resilience evaluation of Chinese regions: integrating the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets with prospe
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Flood disaster resilience evaluation of Chinese regions: integrating the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets with prospect theory Ying Luo1 · Xudong Chen2 · Liming Yao1,3 Received: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 17 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The aggravation of flood risk has been regarded as a serious threat to the natural ecological environment and the development of human society worldwide. There is a large population living on the banks of rivers, lakes and other flood plains. Since the introduction of the concept of disaster resilience, it has developed rapidly and has been widely applied in the field of disaster management. We introduce a new method by taking prospect theory as the main idea and incorporating the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets into the evaluation process. We illustrate its application through a case study of the provincial-level regions along the Yangtze River Basin. We find that the flood resilience in the west is generally stronger than that in the east. The strongest one is in Yunnan due to its unique natural environmental advantages while the weakest one is in Jiangxi because of its poor and immature natural, social, economic and management performance. We put forward specific management insights that consider different levels of resilience and the actual situation in each region. Graphic abstract
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Natural Hazards
Keywords Flood disaster resilience · Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets · Prospect theory · Yangtze River Basin
1 Introduction Extreme weather and natural disasters tend to have devastating effects on the ecological environment and human society. In recent years, the frequency and degree of extreme climate events are still increasing, and the risk of natural disasters keeps growing tremendously (Sun et al. 2016). China’s environmental problems are the most serious in the world, and the majority of them are getting worse, causing significant economic losses, social conflicts and medical costs (Liu and Diamond 2005). In 2017 alone, natural disasters caused direct economic losses of 301.87 billion yuan in China, affecting 14.448 million people. Among all the natural disasters, the death toll and economic losses caused by floods are the most prominent (Aerts et al. 2014). Flood disaster has caused plenty of casualties, property losses and agricultural damage around the world. Over the past decade, flood disaster has caused more than $30 billion a year in global economic losses (Roxy et al. 2017). In 2017, China’s flood disaster affected 55.1490 million people and caused direct economic losses of 214.253 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 10% of the total global economic losses. As global warming and human activity intensify, extreme rainfall events in the future will become more frequent, which will trigger more dangerous and costly floods (Min et al. 2011; Yin et al. 2018). The annual growth rate of the number of people affected by floods in the w
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