An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin, China
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An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin, China Runjie Li 1,2 & Jinkang Du 1,2 & Guodong Bian 3,4 & Yuefeng Wang 5 & Changchun Chen 6 & Xueliang Zhang 1,2 & Maohua Li 1,2 & Shanshan Wang 1,2 & Senyao Wu 1,2 & Shunping Xie 1,2 & Long Yang 1 & Chong-Yu Xu 7 Received: 15 December 2019 / Accepted: 2 July 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
The accurate simulation and prediction of flood response in urbanized basins remains a great challenge due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in land surface properties. We hereby propose an integrated modelling approach that consists of a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model and a novel parameterization strategy. The modelling approach integrates the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model, Taihu Basin (TB) model, and Nash instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) into a framework. Model parameters are calibrated by optimizing their relationships with corresponding physical factors. The proposed modelling approach is applied in the Qinhuai River basin (QRB), China. The modelling approach shows satisfactory performance in flood simulation both for calibration and validation of flood events in the QRB. The approach has temporal and spatial prediction capability by using the established relationships between parameter values and physical factors. Robustness analysis reveals that the different sets of flood events used for parameter relationship calibration led to similar model performance. Numerical experiments show that impervious coverage poses strong influences on the model performance and needs to be considered in flood routing simulations for small- or medium-intensity flood events. Keywords Urbanization . Hydrological model . Model calibration . Flood response . Parameter estimation
1 Introduction As one of the most extensive anthropogenic activities, urbanization has triggered a variety of environmental issues (Booth and Jackson 1997; Patra et al. 2018; Zhang et al. 2018), among which hydrological alterations have attracted increasing concern in the past several decades. * Long Yang [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
R. Li et al.
Urban development increases impervious surface area and artificial drainage systems, which dramatically alter hydrological processes (Braud et al. 2013; Oudin et al. 2018; Schueler et al. 2009), such as an increase in surface runoff, a decrease in infiltration and changes in groundwater discharge (e.g., Burns et al. 2005; Salvadore et al. 2015). Previous studies have shown that disastrous flood events have become more frequent due to urbanization (Hu 2016; Hundecha and Bardossy 2004). Hydrological modelling is the most useful and effective tool to examine the impacts of urbanization on hydrological processes (Jacobson 2011; Trinh and Chui 2013). Hydrological models can be typically divided into three categories: lumped, semi-distributed and distributed models (Arnold and Gibbons 1996; Bach et al. 2014; Salvadore et al. 2015). Of all three ca
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