An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Studying the Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity in Reservoir Permeability on CO
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An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Studying the Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity in Reservoir Permeability on CO2 Sequestration Zhangshuan Hou · Dave W. Engel · Guang Lin · Yilin Fang · Zhufeng Fang
Received: 26 January 2012 / Accepted: 11 April 2013 © International Association for Mathematical Geosciences 2013
Abstract A new uncertainty quantification framework is adopted for carbon sequestration to evaluate the effect of spatial heterogeneity of reservoir permeability on CO2 migration. Sequential Gaussian simulation is used to generate multiple realizations of permeability fields with various spatial statistical attributes. In order to deal with the computational difficulties, the following ideas/approaches are integrated. First, different efficient sampling approaches (probabilistic collocation, quasi-Monte Carlo, and adaptive sampling) are used to reduce the number of forward calculations, explore effectively the parameter space, and quantify the input uncertainty. Second, a scalable numerical simulator, extreme-scale Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases, is adopted as the forward modeling simulator for CO2 migration. The framework has the capability to quantify input uncertainty, generate exploratory samples effectively, perform scalable numerical simulations, visualize output uncertainty, and evaluate input-output relationships. The framework is demonstrated with a given CO2 injection scenario in heterogeneous sandstone reservoirs. Results show that geostatistical parameters for permeability have different impacts on CO2 plume radius: the mean parameter has positive effects at the top layers, but affects the bottom layers negatively. The variance generally has a positive effect on the plume radius at all layers, particularly at middle layers, where the transport of CO2 is highly influenced by the subsurface heterogeneity structure. The anisotropy ratio has weak impacts on the plume radius, but affects the shape of the CO2 plume.
Z. Hou () · Y. Fang · Z. Fang Earth Systems Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Post Office Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA e-mail: [email protected] D.W. Engel · G. Lin Computational Science & Mathematics Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Post Office Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA
Math Geosci
Keywords Uncertainty quantification · Efficient sampling · Reservoir heterogeneity · Carbon sequestration
1 Introduction Numerical models are essential tools in fully understanding the fate of injected CO2 for commercial-scale sequestration projects and should be included in the life cycle of a project. Common practice involves modeling the behavior of CO2 during and after injection using site-specific reservoir and caprock properties. Migration and storage of CO2 involve complex physical and chemical processes. Among the factors that affect sequestration performance is the spatial heterogeneity of injection reservoir properties such as permeability. The effects of heterogeneity in carbon sequestration in saline aquifers and other
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