Analysis of second outbreak of COVID-19 after relaxation of control measures in India
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Analysis of second outbreak of COVID-19 after relaxation of control measures in India Xinchen Yu . Guoyuan Qi
. Jianbing Hu
Received: 24 June 2020 / Accepted: 28 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract At present, more and more countries have entered the parallel stage of fighting the epidemic and restoring the economy after reaching the inflection point. Due to economic pressure, the government of India had to implement a policy of relaxing control during the rising period of the epidemic. This paper proposes a compartment model to study the development of COVID-19 in India after relaxing control. The Sigmoid function reflecting the cumulative effect is used to characterize the model-based diagnosis rate, cure rate and mortality rate. Considering the influence of the lockdown on the model parameters, the data are fitted using the method of least squares before and after the lockdown. According to numerical simulation and model analysis, the impact of India’s relaxation of control before and after the inflection point is studied. Research shows that adopting a relaxation policy prematurely will have disastrous consequences. Even if the degree of relaxation is only 5% before the inflection point, it will increase the number of deaths by 15.03%. If the control is relaxed after the inflection point, the higher
X. Yu · G. Qi (&) Tianjin Key Laboratory of Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy, Tiangong University, Tianjin 300387, China e-mail: [email protected] J. Hu School of Mechanical Engineering, Tiangong University, Tianjin 300387, China
degree of relaxation, the more likely a secondary outbreak will occur, which will extend the duration of the pandemic, leading to more deaths and put more pressure on the health care system. It is found that after the implementation of the relaxation policy, medical quarantine capability and public cooperation are two vital indicators. The results show that if the supply of kits and detection speed can be increased after the control is relaxed, the secondary outbreak can be effectively avoided. Meanwhile, the increase in public cooperation can significantly reduce the spread of the virus, suppress the second outbreak of the pandemic and reduce the death toll. It is of reference significance to the government’s policy formulation. Keywords COVID-19 · Relaxing control · Compartment model · Inflection point · Second outbreak
1 Introduction More than 200 countries and regions worldwide have been suffering from COVID-19 since the outbreak, and the confirmed cases are still increasing worldwide. The international community is working hard to adopt global cooperation and commitments to solve this complex problem, so as to better prepare for the pandemic [1]. As of June 22, 2020, the total
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number of confirmed cases reached 8,860,331 all over the world, including 465,740 deaths [2]. According to research, the new coronavirus is highly contagious and has human-to-human ch
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