Application of Statistical Models: Parameters Estimation of Road Accident in Bangladesh
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Application of Statistical Models: Parameters Estimation of Road Accident in Bangladesh Md. Ebrahim Shaik1 · Quazi Sazzad Hossain1 Received: 19 July 2020 / Accepted: 2 August 2020 © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2020
Abstract Road traffic accident is the most unwanted situation and one of the significant reasons for death and injuries of people of all ages worldwide. Statistical analysis of highway-related accidents is of utmost importance to evaluate the severity of the problem and speed up taking decision toward its attenuation. In this research, three statistical models, namely negative binomial, gamma regression and Poisson regression model, were developed by using the statistical software IBM SPSS 25.0 to determine the various contributing factors which were significantly responsible for road accidents occurring in Bangladesh. The parameters selected to develop each of the models are collision type, junction type, vehicle type, weather conditions, and driver behaviors. The goodness of fit test of the Poisson regression model indicates that there was an overdispersion problem in the accident data. The value of deviance and Pearson Chi-square of negative binomial regression analysis were found to be approximately 1.00. This determination declines that the negative binomial regression model was the best fit for the data. The gamma regression analysis was selected due to the handle under dispersion data. The significant contributing factors for road traffic accident occurring in this city based on the appropriate model were head-on and sideswipe as a collision type; T junction and cross junction as a junction type; bus and truck as a vehicle type; high speed and loss of control as a driver behavior. The weather condition is the only factor that has no significant contribution to road traffic accident occurrence. Keywords Road accident · Statistical models · Parameters estimation · Goodness of fit test · Wald confidence interval
Introduction Nowadays, RTAs are one of the most global issues in the whole world. Most of the vehicles such as cars, buses, trucks, minibuses, pickups, and motorcycles are increasing day by day throughout the world. In Bangladesh as a developing country, according to the study by the Accident Research Institute (ARI), BUET claims that every year an average 12,000 lives and about 35,000 injuries occurred by road accidents [1]. This article is part of the topical collection “Advances in Computational Approaches for Artificial Intelligence, Image Processing, IoT and Cloud Applications” guest edited by Bhanu Prakash K N and M. Shivakumar. * Md. Ebrahim Shaik [email protected] Quazi Sazzad Hossain [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
Khulna Metropolitan City is the third-largest city in Bangladesh with an area of 45.65 km2, more than 1.500 million people living there and 67,994 per square kilometer population density [2]. In this city, the total number of roads are 1215
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