Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis
This updated edition retains its introduction to applied fundamental statistics, probability, reliability, and decision theory as these pertain to problems in Civil Engineering. The new edition adds an expanded treatment of systems reliability, Baye
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Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis Second Edition
Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis
Robb Eric S. Moss
Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis Second Edition
123
Robb Eric S. Moss Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo, CA, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-22679-4 ISBN 978-3-030-22680-0 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22680-0
(eBook)
1st edition: © Robb Eric S. Moss 2013 2nd edition: © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
This is the second edition of Moss (2013). The objective of this text is to introduce fundamental applied probability and reliability methods within one term of study so that, as the course outcome, students can perform first-order probability of failure analysis on Civil Engineering problems. To achieve this outcome I present a simplified or streamlined approach to the material: • Only basic necessary statistical methods are presented, focusing on an intuitive understanding of the data and what it can tell us about past events. • Probability is presented in a systematic manner to make solving the often tricky probability problems more tractable. • Only the normal and lognormal distributions are used in this text because of their useful mathematical properties and because they can often approximate a solution adequately for a first-order analysis. • Functions of random variables are presented in a canonical manner to make solving straightforward. • A comprehensive set of reliability methods is presented, with emphasis on methods that can be solved with minimal background in higher math. • The tools of decision analysis, systems analysis, and other re
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