Applied Mathematical Demography

The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, a

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Applied Mathematical Demography Third Edition

Statistics for Biology and Health Series Editors M. Gail, K. Krickeberg, J. Samet, A. Tsiatis, W. Wong

Nathan Keyfitz Hal Caswell

Applied Mathematical Demography Third Edition

With 74 Illustrations

Nathan Keyfitz Professor Emeritus Department of Sociology Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 USA [email protected] Series Editors M. Gail National Cancer Institute Rockville, MD 20892 USA

A. Tsiatis Department of Statistics North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC 27695 USA

Hal Caswell Biology Department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole, MA 02543-1049 USA [email protected]

K. Krickeberg Le Chatelet F-63270 Manglieu France

J. Samet Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health Johns Hopkins University 615 Wolfe Street Baltimore, MD 21205-2103 USA

W. Wong Department of Statistics Sequoia Hall 390 Serra Mall Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-4065 USA

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Keyfitz, Nathan, 1913– Applied mathematical demography.—3rd ed. / Nathan Keyfitz, Hal Caswell. p. cm. — (Statistics for biology and health) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-387-22537-4 (alk. paper) 1. Demography—Mathematical models. 2. Population biology—Mathematical models. 3. Matrices. 4. Matrices—Data processing. I. Caswell, Hal. II. Title. III. Series. HB849.51.K49 2005 304.6′01′51—dc22 2004052525 ISBN 0-387-22537-4

Printed on acid-free paper.

First edition © 1977 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. © 2005, 1985 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Printed in the United States of America. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springeronline.com

(EB)

SPIN 10951163

To the students at Chicago, Berkeley, and Harvard who are responsible for any merit this book may have. NK

To Christine, with thanks for everything. HC

Preface to the Third Edition

When the second edition of this book was nearly exhausted, and orders were grinding to a halt, Springer urged me to do a third edition. At the age of 90 I said that was out of the question, but perhaps a co-author could be found. I spoke to several distinguished demographers, and the general drift of their replies was that the book was complete and well-rounded (my own opinion!) and there was nothing that could be usefully added. We were monumentally wrong. We hadn’t noticed