Statistical Demography and Forecasting
Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts an
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Juha M. Alho and Bruce D. Spencer
Statistical Demography and Forecasting With 33 Illustrations
Juha Alho Department of Statistics University of Joensuu Joensuu, Finland
Bruce Spencer Department of Statistics Northwestern University Evanston, IL 60208 USA
Library of Congress Control Number: 2005926699 (hard cover) Library of Congress Control Number: 2005927649 (soft cover) ISBN 10: 0-387-23530-2 (hard cover) ISBN 13: 978-0387-23530-1 (hard cover) ISBN 10: 0-387-22538-2 (soft cover) ISBN 13: 978-0387-22538-8 (soft cover)
Printed on acid-free paper.
C 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.
All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Printed in the United States of America. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springeronline.com
(TB/MVY)
SPIN 11011019 (hard cover)
SPIN 11013662 (soft cover)
To Irja and Donna
Preface
Statistics and demography share important common roots, yet as academic disciplines they have grown apart. Even a casual survey of leading journals shows that cross-references are rare. This is unfortunate, because many social problems call for a multi-disciplinary approach. Both statistics and demography are necessary ingredients in any serious analysis of the sustainability of pension or health care systems in the aging societies, in the assessment of potential inequities of formula-based allocations to local governments, in the estimation of the size of elusive populations such as drug users, in the investigation of the consequences of social ills such as unemployment, and so forth. This book was written to bring together much of the basic statistical theory and methodology for estimating and forecasting population growth and its components of births, deaths, and migration. Although relatively simple mathematical methods have traditionally been used to assess demographic trends and their role in the society, use of modern statistical methods offers significant advantages for more accurately measuring population and vital rates, for forecasting the future, and for assessing the uncertainty of the demographic estimates and forecasts. For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. The b
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