Applying the Spatial EBLUP to Place-Based Policing. Simulation Study and Application to Confidence in Police Work
- PDF / 876,660 Bytes
- 24 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 2 Downloads / 175 Views
Applying the Spatial EBLUP to Place-Based Policing. Simulation Study and Application to Confidence in Police Work David Buil-Gil 1
& Angelo
Moretti 2
& Natalie
Shlomo 3
& Juanjo
Medina 1
Received: 29 May 2019 / Accepted: 27 January 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract There is growing need for reliable survey-based small area estimates of crime and confidence in police work to design and evaluate place-based policing strategies. Crime and confidence in policing are geographically aggregated and police resources can be targeted to areas with the most problems. High levels of spatial autocorrelation in these variables allow for using spatial random effects to improve small area estimation models and estimates’ reliability. This article introduces the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP), which borrows strength from neighboring areas, to place-based policing. It assesses the SEBLUP under different scenarios of number of areas and levels of spatial autocorrelation and provides an application to confidence in policing in London. The SEBLUP should be applied for place-based policing strategies when the variable’s spatial autocorrelation is medium/high, and the number of areas is large. Confidence in policing is higher in Central and West London and lower in Eastern neighborhoods. Keywords Spatial correlation . SAR . Contiguity matrix . Spatial model . Police legitimacy .
London
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-02009333-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* David Buil-Gil [email protected]
1
Department of Criminology, University of Manchester, G18 Humanities Bridgeford Street, M13 9PL, Manchester, UK
2
Department of Computing and Mathematics, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
3
Social Statistics Department, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
D. Buil-Gil et al.
Introduction Policing analyses and intelligence-led policing are moving towards the study of small geographic areas, or micro places, to develop place-based policing strategies to reduce crime and disorder (Hutt et al. 2018; Weisburd 2018). Place-based policing draws from the empirical observation that crime is concentrated at micro geographical units, which are sometimes referred to as ‘hot spots of crime’ (Weisburd 2015, 2018). Sherman et al. (1989) found that only 3.5% of addresses in the city of Minneapolis produce 50% of all annual crime calls to the police. Pierce et al. (1988) found similar results in Boston: 2.6% of addresses produce the 50% of police calls. Weisburd et al. (2004) examined the distribution of crime in Seattle from 1989 to 2002, and found that 50% of crimes were located at 4.5% of street segments, which showed that the concentration of crimes in small areas is stable across time. Therefore, Weisburd (2015) argues that there is a law of crime concentration, which states that “for a defined measure of crime at a specific microgeographic unit, the concentration of
Data Loading...
