Arctic Climate Change The ACSYS Decade and Beyond

The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have alrea

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ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANOGRAPHIC SCIENCES LIBRARY VOLUME 43

Editors Lawrence A. Mysak, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Kevin Hamilton, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, U.S.A. Editorial Advisory Board A. Berger J.R. Garratt J. Hansen M. Hantel W. Hsieh H. Kelder T.N. Krishnamurti P. Lemke G.E. Swaters A.J. Willmott J.C. Wyngaard

Université Catholique, Louvain, Belgium CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia MIT, Cambridge, MA, U.S.A. Universität Wien, Austria University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), De Bilt, The Netherlands The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, U.S.A. Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, U.K. Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, U.S.A.

For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5669

Peter Lemke • Hans-Werner Jacobi Editors

Arctic Climate Change The ACSYS Decade and Beyond

Editors Peter Lemke Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research Postfach 12 01 61 27515 Bremerhaven Germany [email protected]

Hans-Werner Jacobi Université Joseph Fourier-Grenoble 1/ CNRS Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement UMR 5183 54, rue Molière 38041 Saint-Martin d’Hères cedex France [email protected]

ISSN 1383-8601 ISBN 978-94-007-2026-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-2027-5 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-2027-5 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2011943094 All Rights Reserved for Chapter 3 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

Dedication Dr. Victor Savtchenko (22.07.1937–15.08.2008)

This book is dedicated to the memory of Victor (Gavrilovitch) Savtchenko, a scientist and coordinator of international climate science, who, in turn, dedicated a significant part of his life, knowledge and energy towards formulating the founding ideas and setting the stage for two major research projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), namely the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) and the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project. Victor was born on 22 July 1937 in Poltava in the former Soviet Union. Now this city and the region surrounding it is a part of Ukraine. In 1969 Victor completed a postgraduate course of the Leningrad Hydrometeorological Institute (at present the Russian State Hydrometeorological University), and joined the Arct