Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Common Bean (Phaseolus Vulgaris Savi, L.) Production in Tanzania
Our understanding of how bean crops may respond to climate change is important in designing agronomic and breeding programs for the future. This study assessed the climate change impact on common bean yield in major producing regions of Tanzania. Five Cou
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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Common Bean (Phaseolus Vulgaris Savi, L.) Production in Tanzania Sixbert Kajumula Mourice, Siza Donald Tumbo and Cornell Lawrence Rweyemamu Abstract Our understanding of how bean crops may respond to climate change is important in designing agronomic and breeding programs for the future. This study assessed the climate change impact on common bean yield in major producing regions of Tanzania. Five Coupled Mode Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)] were evaluated against the baseline climate. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.5) model was used. Under RCP 4.5, the yield increased by 10–32 % for Bukoba, Manyara, Kigoma, and Mbeya, and it decreased by 3 % for Musoma in the near-term period. Under RCP 8.5, the yield increased by 5–30 % in the near-term, 15–40 % in the mid-century, and 20–48 % in the end-century periods for all bean growing areas. More on the climate change impact trajectory and further research recommendations for the common bean is discussed in this study. Keywords AgMIP
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C3 crops DSSAT RCP Tanzania
Introduction
Agricultural production is greatly influenced by climate; therefore, any change in climate that results in an increase in temperature and a change in rainfall patterns as a result of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have a profound effect on agricultural productivity. Over the decades, atmospheric CO2 has been increasing, from 276 ppm in the 1750s to 390 ppm in 2011 (IPCC 2013). Crop S.K. Mourice (&) S.D. Tumbo C.L. Rweyemamu Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania e-mail: [email protected] S.D. Tumbo e-mail: [email protected] C.L. Rweyemamu e-mail: [email protected] © Springer International Publishing AG 2016 R. Lal et al. (eds.), Climate Change and Multi-Dimensional Sustainability in African Agriculture, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-41238-2_15
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species respond differently to increases in CO2, depending on the carbon fixation pathway (C3 vs. C4). The photosynthetic rate in C3 crops (wheat, common beans, rice, potatoes) is more responsive to increased CO2 concentration than in C4 crops (maize, sugarcane, sorghum) (Porter et al. 2014). It is certain that increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may cause a yield increase in C3 crops. However, increased warming trends are likely to offset the yield gains from elevated CO2 if sound adaptation measures are not instituted to mitigate the high temperature consequences. In Tanzania, it has already been indicated that there will be a countrywide increase in mean temperature from 2 to 4 °C by 2100 (IPCC 2007). Higher temperatures can reduce crop duration in terms of increased growth rate, an increased vapor pressure deficit, causing a decreased crop water use efficiency that favors the development and spread of pests (Lobell and Gourdji 2012). Like many other crop species,
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