Assessment of low flow trends and change point detection in Mahanadi River basin, India

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(2020) 6:81

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Assessment of low flow trends and change point detection in Mahanadi River basin, India Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo1   · Ramakar Jha2 Received: 21 August 2019 / Accepted: 1 September 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Abstract Low flow in the river is an important parameter that directly impacts on various water management activities. Therefore, the study of long-term low flow records is essential for managing sustainable water resources in a river basin. The impacts of climate change on water resources has shown a significant change in river discharge, making the study of low flow trends and its variability even more crucial. Trends of the various magnitude of low flows such as 1-day min flow, 3-day min flow, 7-day min flow, 30-day min flow, 90-day min flow for 14 stations over Mahanadi River basin India are studied using the Modified Mann Kendall test. Further, the multivariate Bayesian change point analysis has been carried out for detecting the significant change year. The results obtained show an increasing trend in the low flow in the upper part of the Mahanadi River basin as most of the stations. Which are showing a decreasing trend of low flow indices are present in the upper part of the basin. This study concludes the presence of a mixed low flow trend, i.e., increasing, decreasing, and some stations with no trend. From Multivariate Bayesian change point, analysis advocates that there is evidence of some significant change point in all the stations between the period 1995 and 2006. The analysis revealed that the Mahanadi River basin is highly vulnerable to low flow conditions driven by the variability in low flow discharge, which may be linked to an increase in anthropogenic activities in the basin. Keywords  Low flow · Multivariate bayesian change point · River basin · Sen’s slope · Trend

Introduction Major rivers have globally witnessed a significant change in discharge dynamics in the past few years (Hörmann et al. 2005; Huntington 2006; Stocker 2014). Low flow in the river is an essential part of the operational hydrology. For sustainable water resources management and planning of drought control, irrigation water requirement, domestic water supply, hydropower, and maintaining environmental flow in the river and several other applications require a detailed assessment of available water resources. The streamflow trend analysis is highly essential for hydrologist or a water resources engineer (Bassiouni and Oki 2013; Diop et al. 2017; Tharme 2003). Studying the features of any river discharges time * Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo [email protected] 1



Department of Civil Engineering, MVR College of Engineering and Technology, Paritala, India



Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Patna, India

2

series such as high flows and low flows and their trend are considered one of the essential objectives in water resources engineering, especially in the field of planning and establishing the annual water balance in addition to management of dam’s p

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