Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and green
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Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios Jung-A Yang 1,4
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& Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase
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Received: 3 November 2019 / Accepted: 25 June 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons. Keywords Extreme storm surge height . Climate change . Ensemble experiment . Sea surface temperature . Greenhouse gas concentration scenario
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002782-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Jung-A Yang [email protected] Nobuhito Mori https://orcid.org/0000–0001–9082–3235 Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) projections are summarized in the IPCC (2019) as follows: (1) the proportion of TCs that reach category 4–5 levels will increase (medium confidence); (2) global TC frequency will change, although most modeling studies project some decrease in global TC frequency (low agreement, medium evidence); and (3) sea level rise will lead to higher storm surge levels for the TCs, assuming all other factors are unchanged (very high confidence). The starting point of the manuscript is based on item 3 of the SROCC classification above. The changes in TC frequency depend on climatological environment (e.g., wind shear or humidity) and other factors in the low latitude and the changes in TC intensity depend on increasing SST and atmospheric stability and other factors in the low to middle latitude. The uncertainty of thes
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