Analysis of the changes in historical and future extreme precipitation under climate change in Adama city, Ethiopia
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Analysis of the changes in historical and future extreme precipitation under climate change in Adama city, Ethiopia Dejene Tesema Bulti1 · Birhanu Girma Abebe1 · Zelalem Biru2 Received: 6 August 2020 / Accepted: 17 October 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Under the conditions of climate change, extreme events occur more frequently with higher energy for devastation. Planning for effective management of climate-related risks demands clear information at the local scale. This study aims to characterize the extreme events in the daily precipitation records and to assess the changes under future climate conditions in flood vulnerable city of Adama. For this, the extreme rainfall events during 1965 and 2016 were analyzed on the basis of 10 selected extreme precipitation indices. Using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM), future daily precipitation in the city for the period 2021–2080 was downscaled from the outputs of two Global Circulation Models (CanESM2 and HadCM3) under five climate change scenarios. Taking the climate conditions during 1971 and 2000 as a base, changes in precipitation extreme events in future periods (2021–2050 and 2051–2080) were investigated using the delta approach. The study reveals that the extreme precipitation events in Adama city were increasing over the period of 1965–2016. The results also indicate a successful application of the SDSM for downscaling local-scale future daily precipitation from the outputs of large-scale atmospheric information for the study area. Moreover, under future climate change scenarios, the extreme precipitation would increase up to 2080, despite the changes will be highest during 2050 and 2080, indicates the study area could experience frequent and more severe floods during the coming 60 years due to the changes in global climate. This study would support planning for effective management of flood risks due to the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation in Adama city. Keywords Climate change · Sustainability · Statistical downscaling · Flood risk · Climate extreme
Introduction The augmentation of climatic change due to global warming has become a major concern of climate scientists (Mekonen and Berlie 2019; Geremew et al. 2020). Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of extremes with high variability across the spatial scales. According to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in many regions of the world, intensity and frequency of * Dejene Tesema Bulti [email protected] Birhanu Girma Abebe [email protected] Zelalem Biru [email protected] 1
Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction, and City Development, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia
2
extreme precipitation events will increase until the end of this century (IPCC 2014). In Ethiopia, climate extremes have been considered as a major trigger for climate-related natural disasters (e.g., flood) (Mekasha
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