Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models
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Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models Hiroto Shiraki 1
& Masahiro Sugiyama
2
Received: 9 December 2019 / Accepted: 27 April 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals. Keywords Climate change mitigation . Technology-policy interaction . Integrated assessment model . Energy scenario . Best available database . Evaluation tool
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002731-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Hiroto Shiraki [email protected] * Masahiro Sugiyama [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Integrated assessment models (IAMs) constitute a key method to evaluate nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and low-emission development strategies under the Paris Agreement. Scenarios produced by IAMs serve many different purposes including setting emissions reduction targets (IPCC 2014; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2017), assessing the need for investment (International Energy Agency 2017a), estimating future needs for negative emissions (Fuss et al. 2014), and serving as a basis for climate projection and impact assessment (Morgan et al. 2009; Moss et al. 2010; Riahi et al. 2017). As with any tool, IAMs should be carefully employed because of many known limitations (Morgan and Keith 2008; Morgan et al. 2009; Krey 2014; Paltsev 2017). Recently, a number of commentators noted the model–reality discrepancy for rapidly changing technologies such as solar photovoltaics and wind turbines (Trancik et al. 2015; Creutzig et al. 2017; Morn 2019). Among the reasons for the mode
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