Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policie
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Back to the Future: a Sensitivity Analysis to Predict Future Fertility Rates Considering the Influence of Family Policies—The Cases of Spain and Norway Vicente Díaz Gandasegui1 · Begoña Elizalde‑San Miguel2 · Maria T. Sanz3 Accepted: 13 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract This article analyzes the relationship between family policies focused on childcare for children under the age of three and fertility levels. In the current context of very low European fertility, it is important to understand whether public support for families can help increase fertility or if, on the contrary, existing fertility levels are the exact reflection of the reproductive desires of families, regardless of the family-support of the policies that may exist in each country. This analysis was carried out through a stochastic dynamic mathematical model that incorporates both demographic variables and family policy variables. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on Spain and Norway, two countries that have very different models of family policies. This sensitivity analysis allows establishing a relationship between the existing family policies and the total fertility rate and also the expected evolution of fertility rates in the future, if the current family policies remain constant. The results showed that the models which lead to an increase in fertility are those which are most generous and which also incorporate a gender perspective, so they allow the identification of good practices and maximum levels of policy efficiency in regards to different objectives such as increase fertility and advances towards gender equality. By contrast, models with erratic and insufficient support clearly contribute to maintaining fertility at very low levels and perpetuate unequal gender relationships. There is, therefore, space for state agency to develop more effective public policies in both dimensions. Keywords Family policies · Fertility rates · Gender equality · Work-life balance · Mathematical sociology
* Vicente Díaz Gandasegui [email protected] 1
Departamento de Análisis Social, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Getafe, Spain
2
Departamento de Sociología y Trabajo Social, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain
3
Departamento Didáctica de la Matemática, Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain
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1 The Study of Family Policies and Fertility This article aims to examine the impact that public family policies have on a country’s fertility rate. The study of the relationship between these two dimensions has gained relevance in the scope of social sciences in recent decades, considering its implications in areas that constitute an important social concern in the current European environment, such as population ageing or gender equality (Billingsley and Ferrarini 2014; Björklund 2006; D’Addio and d’Ercole 2005; Gauthier 2013; Gauthier and Philipov 2008; Hoem 2008; Kalwij 2010; Lappegård 2010; Luci-Greulich and Thévenon 2013; McDonald 2001; Rindfuss et al
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